2012 New Mexico Bowl Odds and Picks: Nevada vs Arizona Predictions – Free College Bowl Picks

2012 College Bowl Odds and Picks: Nevada vs Arizona Predictions – Free New Mexico Bowl Picks 12/15/12: Bowl season officially kicks off with the Gildan New Mexico Bowl. The Nevada Wolf Pack (7-5, 4-4 MWC) will take on the Arizona Wildcats (7-5, 4-5 Pac-12) in a battle of two of the country’s most unique offenses as Nevada’s pistol attack will go toe to toe with Arizona’s version of the spread-option system. In what figures to be a high-scoring affair, the Wildcats are 10-point favorites.

For Nevada, quarterback Cody Fajardo and running back Stefphon Jefferson are the two main components of this year’s pistol attack that ranks seventh in the country in rushing and 20th in scoring. Fajardo has thrown for more than 2,500 yards and is just shy of 1,000 yards rushing. Meanwhile, Jefferson has rushed for more than 1,700 yards and has accounted for 22 rushing touchdowns. The Wolf Pack have needed plenty of points this year to cover up a defense that ranks 96th in scoring at 32.5 points per game.

Arizona on the other hand has one of the most balanced offenses in the country, ranking 29th in passing, 15th in rushing and 17th in scoring. Quarterback Matt Scott has been a bit turnover prone at times, but he has also has 24 touchdowns and has thrown for more than 3,000 yards. The main target for many of his throws is Austin Hill, who has nearly 1,200 receiving yards on the season. Meanwhile, running back Ka’Deem Carey currently leads the country with 1,757 yards and has scored 20 times. Like Nevada, the Wildcats have needed their high-powered offense to make up for a porous defense. Arizona ranks 103-rd in the country in scoring, allowing 34.3 points per game.

The Wolf Pack Win If:

If Fajardo and Jefferson can control the pace of the game with their running ability, the Wolf Pack are going to have the upper hand. As powerful as Nevada’s offense has been this year, the Wolf Pack don’t want to fall behind. If they can stay close or ahead of Arizona throughout the game, they can keep a shaky Wildcats’ defense guessing. Defensively, Nevada needs to take advantage of Scott’s tendency to make ill-advised throws to create a few turnovers. If the Wolf Pack can come up with one or two big defensive plays to support its offense, they can definitely win a shootout against an Arizona team with one of the worst defenses in the country.

The Wildcats Win If:

Arizona’s balance on offense separates itself from a lot of other teams in the country, and maintaining balance against Nevada is crucial. The Wolf Pack have had issues slowing down opponents all year, and the Wildcats keep them guessing, Arizona should be headed to another monster point day. A mistake-free day from Scott would also go a long way to helping the cause. On the defensive side of the ball the Wildcats need to force Nevada into as many obvious passing situations as possible. Arizona struggles to defend the run, and if Fajardo and Jefferson are able do a ton of damage on the ground, the Wildcats are going to be in trouble. If this game comes down to which offense has the most weapons and can score in the most ways, the Wildcats can win a shootout.

Bottom Line:

Arizona has been an enigma this year. The Wildcats took both Oregon State and eventual Pac-12 champion Stanford to the wire but lost to Oregon and UCLA by a combined score of 115-10. While Arizona’s offense has been explosive it has also been inconsistent. Meanwhile, the Wildcats’ defense has been gashed all year. Arizona has been able to outscore its problems in some cases, but the Wildcats are going to find it hard to do that against a high-scoring Nevada team. In the end, both offenses are likely to go up and down the field against a pair of bad defenses, and while Arizona may end up winning in a shootout, the Wildcats haven’t shown the consistency needed to bury teams.

Prediction: Nevada Wolfpack (+10) Cover the Spread

Nevada vs Arizona Vegas Odds and Total
Date: 12/15/12
Line: Arizona -9
Total: Over/Under 75
Television: 1 PM EST on ESPN

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