2012 MAC Championship Odds and Picks: Northern Illinois vs Kent State Predictions – Free College Football Picks

2012 MAC Championship Odds and Picks: Northern Illinois vs Kent State Predictions – Free College Football Picks 11/30/12: If you aren’t a diehard college football fan, you probably don’t know a lot about the Mid-American Conference or its teams. However, the conference will get a chance to take center stage Friday night when the 21st-ranked Northern Illinois Huskies (11-1, 8-0 MAC) face the 17-th-ranked Kent State Golden Flashes (11-0, 8-0 MAC) in the MAC championship game. The Huskies bring an 11-game winning streak into the matchup and haven’t lost since a one-point loss in the season opener to Iowa. Meanwhile, the Golden Flashes have won 10 games in a row with their lone loss coming to Kentucky in their second game of the year. Needless to say, two impressive winning streaks are on the line along with a conference crown in a game where Northern Illinois is favored by seven points.

The MAC title game could also have much bigger implications as far as the BCS is concerned. A rule exists that says that any team from a conference like the MAC that doesn’t have an automatic BCS bowl tie in that finishes at least 16th in the final BCS standings and is ranked ahead of a conference champion from a conference that does have an automatic tie in is guaranteed to play in a BCS bowl. Long story short, the winner of this game is going to be ahead of whichever team ends up winning the ridiculously weak Big East. Meanwhile, losses by Texas and UCLA would likely also move the winner of the MAC title game into the top 16 in the BCS standings. In other words, the winner between Northern Illinois and Kent State could end up playing in a BCS bowl.

On the field, the game will be a battle between two of the top rushing attacks in the country. Led by dual-threat quarterback Jordan Lynch, the Huskies have the ninth-best rushing offense in the country and rank 12th in scoring. Lynch has enjoyed an impressive season, throwing for more than 2,700 yards, rushing for more than 1,600 yards and combining for 39 scores. Kent State on the other hand has used a two-headed monster at running back to power the 11th-best rushing offense. Trayion Durham and Dri Archer have combined for more than 2,500 yards and 28 scores, and both players topped 1,000 yards, making the Golden Flashes one of just two teams in the country with two 1,000-yard rushers.

The Huskies Win If:

Northern Illinois has the best offensive weapon on the field in this game in Lynch. More importantly, his ability to beat defenses with his arm and his legs gives the Huskies the more balanced offense in this contest. Kent State won’t be able to sell out against either the run or the pass, allowing the Huskies to keep a good but not great defense off balanced. Meanwhile, the Northern Illinois defense that is already one of the stronger units in the country can focus solely on shutting down the Golden Flashes’ ground game. If the Huskies’ defense controls the Durham and Archer, Lynch and the high-scoring Northern Illinois offense will take care of the rest.

The Golden Flashes Win If:

There is no secret that the backbone of the Golden Flashes’ offense is the duo of Durham and Archer. Kent State doesn’t have a strong passing attack to fall back on, and falling behind would be a death sentence. On the flip side, Kent State can control the clock and keep the Lynch and the Huskies’ offense on the sidelines if it gets its running back tandem rolling early. If the Golden Flashes have to come from behind, they are going to be in trouble. If they move the ball on the ground consistently from the opening kickoff, they can wear down the Huskies just as they have worn down all but one opponent this season.

Bottom Line:

Although the Northern Illinois defense has been nearly as impressive as the Huskies’ offense, there is one major blip on the radar for a unit allowing just 17.5 points per game. In an early season meeting with Army, Lynch and company needed a comeback victory on the road to escape with a 41-40 victory, and the 40 points Northern Illinois are still a season high to date. I mentioned earlier that only one team other than Kent State had two 1,000-yard rushers, and that team just happens to be Army. In fact, he Black Knights had three different players top 100 yards on the ground against the Huskies, and those three players combined for six scores. The multiple-back system confused and worse down the Huskies, and it is exactly the same offensive philosophy Kent State uses. Don’t get me wrong, the Huskies are more than capable of winning a shootout, but with a back-and-forth game likely, the Golden Flashes can hang within a touchdown.

Prediction: Kent State Golden Flashes (+7) Cover the Spread 

Northern Illinois @ Kent State Vegas Odds and Total
Line: No Illinois -7
Total: Over/Under 58.5
Television: 7 PM EST on ESPN

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