2012 College Bowl Odds and Picks: Toledo vs Utah State Predictions – Free Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Picks 12/15/12: It will be a battle of the MAC versus the WAC in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl when the Toledo Rockets (9-3, 6-2 MAC) take on the 22nd-ranked Utah State Aggies (10-2, 6-0 WAC). Utah State brings a six-game winning streak into the matchup while Toledo dropped two of its final three games. Fresh off their first-ever WAC title, the Aggies are 10-point favorites in this one.
The Rockets have been balanced on offense this year, and they bring a top-50 passing and rushing attack into the bow game. Quarterback Terrance Owens threw for almost 2,700 yards while running back David Fluellen ran for almost 1,500 yards and 13 scores. Overall, Toledo ranks 39th in the country in scoring this season, averaging 32.9 points per game. On the defensive side of the ball, the Rockets have been average at best. Toledo currently owns the 59th-ranked scoring defense, allowing more than 27 points per game.
Utah State has been nothing if not consistent on offense this year. The Aggies rank 37th in passing, 37th in rushing and 36th in scoring. Quarterback Chuckie Keeton threw for more than 3,000 yards and 27 touchdowns. Meanwhile, running back Kerwynn Williams the ran for nearly 1,300 yards, averaging 6.4 yards per carry. On the defensive side of the ball, Utah State has been one of the top teams in the country. The Aggies have the eighth-best scoring defense, allowing just 15.4 points per game. Utah State allowed just two opponents to top 20 points all year.
The Rockets Win If:
While Owens had a solid year in terms of passing yardage, he didn’t always thrive when the offense was on his shoulders. He managed just 14 touchdowns compared to eight interceptions, and facing a stout Aggies’ defense, he could have issues if the Rockets fall behind early. Establishing Fluellen and the ground game will be crucial both to keep the Utah State defense off balance and to keep the Aggies’ solid offense off the field. Meanwhile, the Rockets’ up-and-down defense can’t afford to lay an egg in this one and give up 40-plus points. If Toledo can establish balance on offense early in the game and at least get a respectable effort from its defense, the Rockets can knock of Utah State in this one.
The Aggies Win If:
Utah State definitely has the offensive firepower to go blow for blow with the Rockets, but the Aggies don’t necessarily want to get involved in a shootout. Toledo can put points on the board in its own right, but the Rockets haven’t been able to count on their defense. The Aggies on the other hand have gotten consistently strong performances from their defense, and if the unit holds the Toledo offense in check, Utah State is going to be in great position to win the game. At the end of the day, the biggest difference between these two teams is Utah State’s major edge on the defensive side of the ball. If the Aggies’ defense comes to play, they should win the game.
Bottom Line:
Although the offenses of Utah State and Toledo both have similar amounts of firepower, the Aggies’ defense is the real deal. Utah State lost two games by a combined five points, and both games were on the road. One of those games was a 16-14 loss to Wisconsin when the Aggies held star running back Montee Ball to just 3.8 yards per carry. Not to mention the fact that Utah State held a Louisiana Tech team leading the country in scoring at more than 51 points per game to just 41 points in an overtime win. Meanwhile, the Rockets struggled to score points in their toughest out-of-conference game against Arizona and in losses to the top two teams in their division in the MAC. In the end, Toledo’s inability to score in bunches against top competition and inability to slow down opponents on defense will come back to bite the Rockets.
Prediction: Utah State Aggies (-10) Cover the Spread
Toledo vs Utah State Vegas Odds and Total
Date: 12/15/12
Line: Utah State -10
Total: Over/Under 58.5
Television: 4:30 PM EST on ESPN
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