2012 College Football Picks: Notre Dame @ Oklahoma Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 10/27/2012

2012 College Football Picks: Notre Dame @ Oklahoma Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 10/27/2012: The national title hopes of both teams are on the line when the fifth-ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-0) face the eighth-ranked Oklahoma Sooners (5-1, 3-1 Big 12) Saturday night in Norman. A road win for Notre Dame against a top-10 team would be a huge resume builder as the Fighting Irish jockey for position among the remaining undefeated teams. Meanwhile, the Sooners can’t afford to slip up if they want to climb the ladder of one-loss teams and try to sneak back into the national title picture. Even though it is a non-conference matchup, there is plenty on the line for both sides. Armed with home-field advantage, Oklahoma is a 10-point favorite.

Offensively, there really is no comparing these two teams. The Sooners rank fifth in the country in scoring at 44.7 points per game. They have a balanced offense with quarterback Landry Jones leading the passing game and running back Damien Williams leading the ground attack. Throw in backup QB that has eight rushing touchdowns as a red zone specialist, and Oklahoma has one of the more balanced offensive attacks in the country. Meanwhile, the Fighting Irish are averaging just 25.9 points per game and rank 100th in the country in terms of passing yards. Notre Dame has been incredibly one-dimensional and conservative on offense, relying almost completely on running backs Cierre Wood and Theo Riddick and the scrambling ability of QB Everett Golson.

That being said, Notre Dame makes up for its lack of offense with a defense that ranks second in the country in scoring, allowing a miniscule 9.4 points per game. Led by star linebacker Manti Te’o, the Fighting Irish have held all seven opponents to 17 points or less this season. While Oklahoma can’t boast those numbers, the Sooners haven’t been bad on defense by any means. In fact, the Sooners have held all their opponents to 21 points or less and are allowing just 15.3 points per game on average.

The Fighting Irish Win If:

Notre Dame’s winning formula has involved playing suffocating defense, keeping the score close, and winning in the fourth quarter. In a hostile road environment, there is no reason to deviate from the game plan. The Fighting Irish need to pound away with their running game and create an ugly, low-scoring pace to the game. As long as Notre Dame doesn’t turn the ball over on offense and give Oklahoma any easy points, the defense is stout enough to keep them within striking distance. From there, the Fighting Irish just need to make one or two big plays down the stretch to steal away the win. If Notre Dame keeps this game close going into the final minutes, the Fighting Irish should be in good shape.

The Sooners Win If:

Notre Dame deserves a lot of credit for being undefeated at this point in the year, but the Fighting Irish haven’t played a team with a balanced, explosive offense. Oklahoma has a dominant offense, and they need to put points on the board Saturday. Plain and simple, Notre Dame doesn’t have the offensive firepower to erase a big deficit. If Jones and company are able to expose a young secondary that hasn’t really been tested, the Sooners are going to be in great shape. Notre Dame isn’t going to outscore Oklahoma in shootout, and if the Sooners jump out to an early lead, things could get ugly as the Fighting Irish abandon their ground game in an attempt to catch up.

Bottom Line:

While the Sooners have been lighting up scoreboards most of the year, their lone loss came against the stout defense of Kansas State. Playing at home, Oklahoma managed just 19 points in a loss to the Wildcats. Now, the Sooners have to take on a Fighting Irish defense that has been even better. Jones has a proven history of struggling against tough defenses, and Notre Dame is going to pressure the Sooners’ QB early and often. Granted, the Fighting Irish offense isn’t going to put up a ton of points against the Sooners’ defense, but a low-scoring, defensive-dominated game definitely favors Notre Dame. Don’t be surprised if the Fighting Irish work their late-game magic and pull out a close one, but win or lose, Notre Dame can hang within 10 points of Oklahoma in this one.

Prediction: Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+10) Cover the Spread

Notre Dame @ Oklahoma Vegas Odds and Total
Line: Oklahoma -12
Total: Over/Under 48
Television: 8 PM EST on ABC

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