2012 College Football Picks: Notre Dame @ Michigan State Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 9/15/2012

2012 College Football Picks: Notre Dame @ Michigan State Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 9/15/2012: When Michigan State and Notre Dame got together last season in South Bend, the undefeated Spartans fell to the winless Fighting Irish 31-13. The two programs will meet again this weekend in East Lansing, and this time around, both teams are 2-0 and ranked inside the top 20. For the 10th-ranked Spartans, a win would give them their first 3-0 start in a decade and extend their home winning streak against top 25 teams to five games. For the 20th-ranked Fighting Irish, a big road win would go a long way to proving that they are really on their way back to becoming a national power. While Notre Dame won last year’s meeting, Michigan State has won 10 of the last 15 games in this series, including the last two on their home field. The Spartans are 5 ½-point favorites for Saturday night’s clash.

Headlining the matchup will be Michigan State’s defense. Through the first two games of 2012, the Spartans have yet to allow an offensive touchdown and rank in the top 10 nationally in fewest yards allowed. Considering one of those games was against the high-powered offense of Boise State, the numbers are for real. Defensive end William Gholston and cornerback Johnny Adams are just two of the many playmakers for the unit that are considered potential All-American candidates, and Michigan State’s defense has NFL-caliber talent at every level. While it is a bit concerning that the Fighting Irish were able to move the ball so effectively on offense against the group last year, the 31 points put up by Notre Dame could also serve as fuel to the fire for a defense that has proven it can shut down anyone.

Also working in favor of the Spartans is the fact that Notre Dame’s offense is currently in a state of flux. Quarterback Everett Golson is expected to make his third straight start, but after Tommy Rees replaced him and led the game-winning drive last weekend against Purdue, there is definitely a QB controversy brewing in South Bend. Rees probably gives Notre Dame the best chance to win, but as he works his way back into the starting lineup following his suspension for an off the field issue, continuity is going to be tough for the Fighting Irish offense to come by. Throw in the fact the starting running back Cierre Wood will be making just his first start of the year following a two-game suspension, and Notre Dame’s two best offensive weapons are going to have to shake off the rust and get up to speed against one of the stingiest defense in the country. It is a tall task to ask of any player.

Of course, Michigan State’s offense isn’t exactly a finely tuned machine either. The Spartans lost one of the most productive quarterbacks and wide receivers in program history to the NFL, and while quarterback Andrew Maxwell has settled down after a rough first half against Boise State, he is still cutting his teeth. As a result, running back Le’Veon Bell has been asked to shoulder the load, and with 280 yards and four scores in two games, he has been up to the task thus far. The punishing back has been able to wear down defenses and control the clock for Michigan State, while ripping off a big run or two along the way. Bell wasn’t the feature back when the two teams met last year, and another strong performance in a win could vault him into the Heisman conversation.

At the end of the day, this matchup is just coming at the wrong time for the Fighting Irish. With a few more weeks to get back up to speed and to get into a rhythm, Rees and Wood would likely have the Notre Dame offense on a much different level. As it stands, consistent offense is likely to be few and far between against a defense that is going to out for blood and has the talent to back it up. The Spartans don’t have the offense to turn this game into a blowout, but with Bell pounding away all night in support of the defense, Michigan State should control the action and win comfortably.

Prediction: Michigan State Spartans (-5 ½) Cover the Spread 

Notre Dame @ Michigan State Vegas Odds and Total
Line: Michigan St -5.5
Total: Over/Under 44
Television: 8 PM EST on ABC

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