2012 College Football Picks: Nebraska @ Ohio State Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 10/6/2012

2012 College Football Picks: Nebraska @ Ohio State Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 10/6/2012: A pair of Big Ten teams will square off in a top-25 matchup this weekend when the 21-st-ranked Nebraska Cornhuskers (4-1) head to Columbus to face the 12th-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0). The Cornhuskers have dreams of competing for a conference crown this season, and a big road win would keep them right in the mix. However, the Buckeyes have already shown they will happily play the role of spoiler. Although ineligible for postseason play in 2012, Ohio State just handed conference rival Michigan State a damaging loss last weekend. They will try to do the same to the Cornhuskers Saturday, and they enter the game as 3 ½-point favorites.

Last year, the two teams delivered one of the more entertaining games of the Big Ten season. Ohio State jumped on top of Nebraska 27-6 in Lincoln, only to watch the Cornhuskers reel of 28 straight second-half points to win 34-27. The turning point of the game was when OSU quarterback Braxton Miller went down with a sprained ankle. Joe Bauserman replaced Miller, and the Buckeyes didn’t score again as Bauserman completed just one of his 10 pass attempts. Miller is healthy for this weekend’s meeting, and with Nebraska starter Taylor Martinez opposing him, two of the top dual-threat QBs in the country will be going head to head. Another entertaining contest could be on tap.

Nebraska Wins If:

The Cornhuskers have one of the top rushing attacks in the country, ranking fifth in yards per game at 305.8. Nebraska’s ground game is both explosive thanks to Martinez and consistent thanks to the inside running of Rex Burkhead and Ameer Abdullah. If the Cornhuskers control the pace of the game with their ground attack and approach their 44.8 points per game average, Ohio State’s improved but inconsistent offense won’t be able to keep pace. For its part, Nebraska’s defense doesn’t have to completely shut down OSU’s spread-option attack, but it does have to limit the big plays. The Cornhuskers win Saturday if they make this game come down to which team can methodically march the ball down the field for points.

Ohio State Wins If:

Ohio State’s defense has underperformed most of the year, but as evidenced by its performance against the Michigan State running game, its strength is the defensive line and stopping the run. If the Buckeyes can force Martinez to beat teams with his arm, their suspect secondary will be masked and the Nebraska offense will struggle. Meanwhile, Miller just has to keep doing what he has been doing all year. He has emerged as legitimate Heisman candidate and has been beating teams with his arm and his legs. The Cornhuskers have allowed 27 and 30 points in meetings with Wisconsin and UCLA this year, and OSU is on par if not better than those two teams offensively. If Miller makes a few big plays throughout the course of the game, the Buckeyes will amass enough points to win the game.

Bottom Line:

While the Ohio State offense has had some stagnant periods from time to time, there is no question that the Buckeyes are a better offensive team with Meyer’s offense in place. With that in mind, Miller and company put up 27 points against Nebraska last season on the road with an offense that could only be described as below average. Ohio State nearly won that game, and now, they get the Cornhuskers at home with a better offense. As long as Miller doesn’t go down with an injury again, he and the Buckeyes should be able to pick up a win that they were on their way to last season.

Prediction: Ohio State Buckeyes (-3 ½) Cover the Spread 

Nebraska @ Ohio State Vegas Odds and Total
Line: Ohio State -3.5
Total: Over/Under 56.5
Television: 8 PM EST on ABC

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