2012 College Football Picks: Michigan vs Alabama Odds and Predictions – NCAA Football Picks 9/1/2012

2012 College Football Picks: Michigan vs Alabama Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 9/1/2012: Talk about a season opener. Defending national champion Alabama and defending Sugar Bowl champion Michigan will ring in the 2012 college football season in emphatic fashion Saturday night in Cowboys Stadium. For the second-ranked Crimson Tide and eighth-ranked Wolverines, the game obviously has huge title implications this season. Alabama is trying to kick off its national title defense by proving that they are still the team to beat despite losing a lot of talent to the NFL. Meanwhile, Michigan is trying to take the next step and prove that its 11-win season was no fluke. Not to mention that long-term, the rare showdown between two of the most-storied programs in the sport could have bigger ramifications on recruiting. There will be a January-like atmosphere in September for this battle of heavyweights, and while the game will be played on a neutral site, the Crimson Tide are 13 ½-point favorites.

While the game means a lot for both teams, it also means a lot of the Heisman hopes of Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson. He is probably the most exciting player in college football, and he has rushed for more than 2,800 yards and scored a combined 30 touchdowns the last two seasons. Making highlight reel plays with his legs outside of the pocket is his specialty, but Robinson has improved as a passer, as well. He still isn’t a polished pocket QB by any means, but he is able to burn defenses down the field because of the threat he poses as a runner. Robinson is the definition of a dual-threat QB, and he can put six points on the board whenever he touches the ball. He has been the biggest reason for the recent turnaround of the Wolverines, but he will face his toughest challenge to date when Michigan meets Alabama. If he makes big play after big play and carries Michigan to a win, Robinson will be the frontrunner for the Heisman. If he gets bottled up or turns the ball over in a crucial spot, his Heisman campaign could come to a very early end.

For as much talent as the Crimson Tide lost on the defensive side of the ball, they still have five-star players and future first-round NFL picks leading the unit. Alabama had the best defense in the country and one of the best in college football history last year, and even if this year’s group takes a small step back, the unit will still rank as one of the sport’s elite. More importantly, the Crimson Tide are still have a very talented defensive front, which should allow them to at least limit Robinson’s big plays. Linebackers Nico Johnson and C.J. Mosley both have above average speed for their position, and massive nose tackle Jesse Williams will give the Crimson Tide an advantage at the point of attack. Throw in all the other athletes Alabama has on the field, and if Michigan will likely have a limited number of chances to put points on the board.

The other problem the Wolverines could have this weekend will be trying to contain Alabama’s power running game despite a reshuffled defensive front. Nose tackle Mike Martin is gone from last year’s group, leaving Michigan with a big hole at the point of attack. It doesn’t help that the Crimson Tide come armed with what is probably the best offensive line in the country, led by defending Outland Trophy winner Barrett Jones. Starting running back Eddie Lacy and the rest of his backfield mates will pound away the Michigan front early and often, and Alabama has a great opportunity to wear down a suspect Wolverines’ front and control the tempo of the game.

The X-factor in the matchup could be Alabama quarterback A.J. McCarron. After being asked just to manage games in his first year as a starter last season, he looked like a potential star in the BCS title game. If McCarron can consistently be the player that carved up the LSU secondary, the Crimson Tide offense is going to reach another level. If McCarron is hitting big plays in the passing game this weekend, Michigan will have almost no hope of pulling off the upset.

In the end, the fact that this is the first game of the season favors the Wolverines to a degree. If you are going to catch a juggernaut napping, especially one with a lot of new starters on defense, there is no better time that the season opener. That being said, Alabama’s size and strength on the offensive line is a matchup nightmare for Michigan’s inexperienced defensive line. The Crimson Tide are going to be able to run the ball and control field position, which makes them very tough to beat. Alabama should come away with the win, but Robinson should have enough spectacular plays to keep the Wolverines within two touchdowns. The Crimson Tide will take a big first step to defending their crown, but Michigan won’t go down without a fight.

Prediction: Michigan Wolverines (+13 ½) Cover the Spread 

Michigan vs Alabama Vegas Odds and Total
Line: Alabama -13.5
Total: Over/Under 47
Television: ESPN at 8PM EST on ABC

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