2012 College Football Picks: Michigan @ Notre Dame Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 9/22/2012

2012 College Football Picks: Michigan @ Notre Dame Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 9/22/2012: When the season began, Michigan was ranked in the top 10, while Notre Dame was fighting for a spot in the top 25 and had plenty of questions to answers. As the two sides prepare to meet this weekend in South Bend, it is the 11th-ranked Fighting Irish (3-0) knocking of the door of the top 10, while the 18th-ranked Wolverines (2-1) are the team with something to prove. Saturday’s showdown could be a season-defining game for both sides. A victory for Michigan would go a long way to silencing the critics heading into conference play, as the Wolverines try to secure a BCS bowl berth for the second year in row. A win for the Fighting Irish would give them a legitimate chance of securing an at-large BCS bowl bid, depending on how the rest of the season plays out. Playing at home and coming off a big win against Michigan State, the Fighting Irish are seven-point favorites in this one.

Last year, these two teams produce one of the most entertaining games of the season. Both offenses were unstoppable, and the game basically came down to which team had the ball last. The Fighting Irish actually took a 31-28 lead with less than two minutes to play, but they still left too much time on the clock. Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson quickly led the Wolverines back down the field, capping the drive with a game-winning touchdown pass in the final seconds. Needless to say, Saturday’s rematch has the chance to be a thriller.

If Michigan is going to come out on top once again, Robinson will have to have an encore performance. Through the first three games of the year, it has become clear that he is still the team’s best and most reliable offensive weapon. The dual-threat QB has 699 passing yards and six scores to go along with a team-leading 351 rushing yards and four scores. Not to mention the fact that the explosive Robinson is averaging an impressive 8.8 yards per carry. Football may be a team sport, but the Wolverines’ chances of beating Notre Dame, and really any good opponent, hinge on the play of Robinson.

The question then becomes whether or not the Fighting Irish can contain Robinson. Middle linebacker Manti Te’o leads a defensive front that has been rock solid this season, holding opponents to just 10.0 points per game. The Fighting Irish also held Michigan State to just three points in their win last weekend, shutting down the Spartans’ star running back Le’Veon Bell. That being said, shutting down a power running game is a lot different than shutting down a speedy QB that can attack a defense in a variety of ways. Robinson probably isn’t going to run wild against a much-improved Notre Dame defense, but the Fighting Irish are kidding themselves if the plan on holding Michigan’s offense to less than 20 points.

Notre Dame will have to put points on the board in order to overcome a Wolverines offense that is averaging more than 36 points per game. The Fighting Irish managed 20 points against an excellent Michigan State defense last weekend, but on the same note, they managed just 20 points against a Purdue defense that is mediocre at best two weeks ago. Consistency is likely going to be hard to find on offense for Notre Dame as either sophomore Everett Golson or last year’s starter Tommy Rees could be under center at any point in the game. Throw in a running game that is still trying to find a rhythm, and coach Brian Kelly doesn’t have the well-oiled offensive machine he is used to assembling.

Unlike last year’s meeting when both sides brought great offenses and suspect defenses to the table, Saturday’s game will come down to how well Notre Dame can contain Robinson and the Michigan offense and whether or not the Fighting Irish offense can put enough points on the board. The style and tempo of this year’s game will be different, but the outcome probably won’t. Look for the game to be decided by one or two big plays Robinson does or doesn’t make. In either case, taking the Wolverines and seven points is the way to go.

Prediction: Michigan Wolverines (+7) Cover the Spread 

Michigan @ Notre Dame Vegas Odds and Total
Line: Notre Dame -5
Total: Over/Under 51
Television: 7:30 PM EST on NBC

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