2012 College Football Picks: Miami-Fl @ Kansas St Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 9/8/2012: A pair of power conference teams will go head to head Saturday afternoon when the Miami Hurricanes take to the road to face the 21st-ranked Kansas State Wildcats. The game pits the ACC against the Big 12, and it also has the potential to be a nice resume-building win for whichever team emerges with the victory. While the Hurricanes are still trying to rebuild their once powerful program, the Wildcats are trying to prove that their 10-win season from a year ago wasn’t a fluke. A loss by either team is a big step back from those goals, and on their home field, the Wildcats are seven-point favorites.
Saturday’s meeting is a rematch of a thriller from a year ago. Kansas State knocked off Miami last season 28-24, but the Wildcats needed a goal line stand late in the fourth quarter to emerge with the road win. In the victory, Kansas State bulldozed Miami with its running game. The Wildcats ran the ball 44 times and finished with 265 rushing yards on 6.0 yards per carry. After getting pummeled on the ground by Kansas State, it is kind of remarkable that the Hurricanes even had a chance at winning, let alone were inches away from doing so.
The game plan for the Wildcats isn’t going to change this time around. Kansas State ran for 324 yards in its season-opening win against Missouri State with quarterback Collin Klein and running back John Hubert leading the way. The same two players were the main cogs in last year’s ground assault against the Hurricanes, and two complement each other perfectly. Klein is a bruising, dual-threat QB that can wear down defenses and finish of drives in the red zone. Meanwhile, Hubert has the speed to rip of huge runs and take advantage of the tired defenders Klein leaves behind. The combination is tough for any defense to stop, let alone a Hurricanes unit that just doesn’t have the talent it is used to putting on the field.
Of course if their season opener against Boston College was any indication, Miami could give Kansas State’s defense trouble, as well. Quarterback Stephen Morris looked as comfortable as he has ever looked in a Hurricanes uniform. Meanwhile, true freshman running back Duke Johnson piled up 135 yards on just seven carries. Overall, Miami has assembled a group of speedy players that gives the offense an element of explosiveness that has been lacking in recent years. The question this weekend is whether or not the group can produce enough big plays to knock off a very solid Kansas State bunch.
The X-factor in the game could Miami’s ability to avoid mistakes. Part of the downfall of the Hurricanes has been penalties, turnovers and missed opportunities. Morris has been a big part of the issue in the past, and for his career, he actually has 12 interceptions compared to just eight touchdowns. Not to mention that Miami has been one of the more-penalized teams in the country the last few seasons. The Wildcats may not have an elite defense, but they do have an above average secondary led by cornerback Nigel Malone. If Morris and company start killing drives either by turnovers or penalties, Kansas State is going to be tough to beat.
In the end, the game probably boils down to the Miami’s offensive output. Kansas State is going to run the ball early and often, and the Wildcats have the personnel to make sure that the ground game is effective. That being said, the team’s power running game hasn’t exactly blown out top competition, and Kansas State always finds itself in close games. Unlike last season when Miami didn’t know where to turn for offense on a game-to-game basis, Johnson, Morris and others are already stepping up in 2012. I still think the Hurricanes come up one or two plays short of getting a big road win, but either way, Miami will keep things close.
Prediction: Miami Hurricanes (+7) Cover the Spread
Miami-Fl @ Kansas St Vegas Odds and Total
Line: Kansas St -7
Total: Over/Under 57.5
Television: 12 PM EST on FX
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