2012 College Football Picks: LSU @ Florida Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 10/6/2012

2012 College Football Picks: LSU @ Florida Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 10/6/2012: A pair of top-10 teams from the SEC will battle this weekend when the fourth-ranked LSU Tigers (5-0) head to Gainesville to face the 10th-ranked Florida Gators (4-0). While the Tigers are trying to get back to the national title game for the second year in a row, the Gators are trying to rebuild a once powerful program. Both sides can take a big step toward their goals with a win this weekend, and the game is the toughest test to date for both clubs. Oddsmakers are expecting a close one, and the fourth-ranked Tigers are 2 ½-point favorites on the road.

Last year, this game wasn’t much of a contest. LSU hit a few early big plays on offense, and the Tigers’ defense victimized the Gators’ offense that was forced to play a third-string quarterback. Not surprisingly, LSU cruised to a 30-point win. The playing field is a bit more level this time around with Florida starting QB Jeff Driskel set to be on center. More importantly, the Gators bring an improved defense and an improved running game. In fact, LSU and Florida are practically mirror images of one another. Both teams rank in the top 20 nationally in terms of rushing yards per game and both rank in the top 10 in terms of fewest points allowed. A hard-hitting, physical game could be on tap.

LSU Wins If:

The Tigers have a dominant offensive line led by two of the best offensive tackles in the country, and they have an equally dominant defensive front led by Sam Montgomery. LSU should be able to control the line of scrimmage on offense and defense and wear down the Gators throughout the course of the game. Even with an injury to running back Alfred Blue, LSU still has multiple backs that they can send at the Florida defense. The Tigers’ offense hasn’t been flashy, but it is consistent and productive. Throw in punter Brad Wing who can control field position with the best of them, and LSU has the perfect recipe for winning tight games. In a hostile road environment, LSU just has to stick to its typical game plan and its superior size and talent should win out.

Florida Wins If:

Running back Mike Gillislee is having a wonderful year, but just like last season, the Florida running game isn’t going to be able to carry the load against LSU’s stout defensive front. Driskel and the passing game have to hit a few big plays, and Driskel has to avoid making critical mistakes. If the Gators can jump on top early, they have a chance to spring the upset. LSU’s offense isn’t built to score quick or come from behind, and Zach Mettenberger hasn’t been the answer at quarterback. If Florida can put the Tigers in a position where Mettenberger has to throw, the Gators’ speedy secondary could create the game-changing turnovers LSU is used to making. Scoring first will be crucial for Florida, and if the game comes down to a field goal, the Gators have one of the best kickers in the country in Caleb Sturgis.

Bottom Line:

These teams basically play identical styles of football and want to win by running the ball and playing defense and controlling field position. The problem the Gators face is that LSU has a better offensive line, more depth at running back and a superior defense when it comes to stopping the run. Granted, Florida is a much better team than it was last season, but it doesn’t have enough talent to pull off an upset against a legitimate national title contender. The Gators will make it interesting, but the relentless pounding delivered by the Tigers in the trenches on both sides of the ball will allow them to pull out the road win.

Prediction: LSU Tigers (-2 ½) Cover the Spread 

LSU @ Florida Vegas Odds and Total
Line: LSU -2.5
Total: Over/Under 42.5
Television: 3:30 PM EST on CBS

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