2012 College Football Picks: Kansas State @ Oklahoma Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 9/22/2012

2012 College Football Picks: Kansas State @ Oklahoma Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 9/22/2012: In 2011, both Kansas State and Oklahoma finished with 10-3 records, but that is where the comparisons end. The Wildcats were one of the biggest surprises of last season, overachieving and winning almost every close game. Meanwhile, the Sooners didn’t even come close to living up to expectations after starting the year as the top-ranked team in the country. As the two teams prepare to meet this weekend in Norman, both the 15th-ranked Wildcats (3-0) and sixth-ranked Sooners (2-0) will be facing by far their toughest test to date. With both programs expected to compete for the Big 12 title, Saturday’s meeting could have major implications down the road. Despite both sides being ranked in the top 15, Oklahoma is a 14-point favorite at home.

Anyone wondering about the point spread doesn’t have to go too far to figure out why the Sooners are two-touchdown favorites. Kansas State was competitive in every game it played last year except one – a home game against Oklahoma. The Wildcats were blown off the field in an ugly 58-17 thumping at the hands of the Sooners. Oklahoma QB Landry Jones threw for a school-record 505 yards in the game as the Sooners outgained the Wildcats by 450 yards. The Sooners’ defense was equally impressive, keeping Kansas State’s power running game in check while sacking quarterback Collin Klein seven times. With a lot of the core players back for both sides for this year’s matchup, a big edge has to go to Oklahoma.

After all, the strength of the Kansas State offense remains the running game. Klein and running back John Hubert form a dynamic duo, with Klein providing the bulldozer like power to Hubert’s speed and agility. The combo has worked to the tune of more than 250 rushing yards and 46.0 points per game thus far in 2012, but Oklahoma had little problem limiting any big plays on the ground last year. At the end of the day, the Wildcats are a one-dimensional team on offense, and the Sooners have enough talent up front on defense to keep Klein and company from running wild this weekend.

If Kansas State is going to reverse last season’s ugly result and pull off an upset, the defense is going to have to step up. Linebacker Arthur Brown and cornerback Nigel Malone give the unit a pair of stars, and on paper, the defense looks rock solid. Unfortunately, the Wildcats actually had the top-ranked defense in the Big 12 when these teams met last year, and that seemed to mean very little to Jones and company. Jones is back under center for Oklahoma this year, and while he may not match his record-setting performance from a year ago, the Sooners’ offense might actually be more dangerous this time around. Running backs Damien Williams and Dominique have revived the Oklahoma running game, giving the offense a balance that it lacked last season. Williams has been particularly impressive, compiling 259 yards on just 20 carries. The Sooners fired shot after shot at the Kansas State defense last year, and they have the firepower to overwhelm the Wildcats once again.

Kansas State needs to establish a power running game on offense to control the clock and limit any big plays on defense in order to have a chance to win. Based on last year’s meeting, doing either will be a serious challenge against the Sooners. Some teams are just bad matchups, and that is what the Wildcats find themselves with in this one. The Sooners’ defense is much more susceptible to the pass than the run, but Kansas State just doesn’t have a great passing attack. Meanwhile, the Wildcats are better at stopping the run than the pass, and Oklahoma can still air the ball out with the best of them. After getting embarrassed at home last season, it is hard to imagine Kansas State faring much better in Norman.

Prediction: Oklahoma Sooners (-14) Cover the Spread 

Kansas State @ Oklahoma Vegas Odds and Total
Line: Oklahoma -14
Total: Over/Under 58
Television: 7:50 PM EST

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