2012 College Football Picks: Clemson @ Florida State Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 9/22/2012: A pair of top-10 teams will get together Saturday night when the fourth-ranked Florida State Seminoles (3-0) host the 10th-ranked Clemson Tigers (3-0). Although it is still early in the year, the matchup will likely end up deciding which team wins the ACC Atlantic Division crown. More importantly, the winner will have added a serious statement win to its resume and probably have a chance to run the table and make a push to play for the national title. There is a lot on the line in Tallahassee, and the Seminoles are opening as a 13 ½-point favorite at home.
On paper, Florida State is downright scary entering this game. The Seminoles currently own the second-best offense in the country, averaging 58.7 points. They also own the best scoring defense in the country and have surrendered just a field goal through the first three games. In other words, the Seminoles are currently outscoring opponents by a little more than eight touchdowns per game. Florida State has also posted back-to-back shutouts, including a 52-0 dismantling of ACC foe Wake Forest last weekend. If those aren’t enough reasons for a team to be confident, I don’t know what are.
That being said, the Seminoles had a highly-touted defense when these teams met last year, and the Tigers lit up the scoreboard for 35 points and emerged with a five-point win at home. Quarterback Tajh Boyd, running back Andre Ellington and receivers Sammy Watkins and DeAndre Hopkins are all back from last year’s offense, and the balanced attack currently ranks in the top 30 in yards per game both on the ground and through the air. The Tigers are going to be putting some points on the board this weekend, and they aren’t going to be intimidated by the Seminoles’ defense or their gaudy scoring average. Not to mention that if things to get close, Clemson has already gutted out a tough win in a lower-scoring game, edging Auburn in the season opener.
While the obvious battle to watch will be the high-powered Clemson offense against the stingy Florida State defense, the key to this game could be the battle between the Florida State offense and the Clemson defense. After all, the most improved unit on either side this season compared to last is the Seminoles’ offense. Quarterback E.J. Manuel is finally looking like a Heisman contender, completing 71.5 percent of his passes and throwing six touchdowns compared to just one interception. More importantly, Florida State’s ground came has been resurrected. Backs Chris Thompson and James Wilder Jr. have both gone over 200 yards for the season already and combined for seven scores. Not to mention that Wilder is averaging 6.9 yards per carry, and Thompson is averaging an incredible 14.1 per carry.
The X-factor in the game could be the psyche of the Florida State players. Let’s face it. This program has been trying to return to its glory days for almost a decade, and while the talent level has certainly gotten there, the big wins have eluded the Seminoles at every turn. It seems like every season a few close losses on the big states are the difference between a good season and a special season, and winning the pressure-packed games is something that just can’t be taught.
In the end, the revamped Florida State offense should be the difference. Clemson has shown it can score on the Seminoles’ stout defense, but FSU was able to put plenty of points on the board against the Tigers last year with an offense that wasn’t exactly a juggernaut. This time around, the Seminoles’ offense is balanced, productive and firing on all cylinders. Florida State should be able to break through and win this game, but I don’t expect it to be easy. Boyd and company have too much firepower to be blown off the field, especially by a FSU group that has been known to show some nerves under the bright lights. Clemson will likely go down Saturday night, but the Tigers will keep things interesting and cover the spread.
Prediction: Clemson Tigers (+13 ½) Cover the Spread
Clemson @ Florida State Vegas Odds and Total
Line: Florida St -14
Total: Over/Under 57.5
Television: 8 PM EST on ABC
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