2012 College Football Picks: Baylor @ West Virginia Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 9/29/2012

2012 College Football Picks: Baylor @ West Virginia Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 9/29/2012: Is anyone in the mood for some offense? To be specific, is anyone in the mood an aerial assault? Two of the most prolific passing attacks in the country will meet in a Big 12 showdown when the 25th-ranked Baylor Bears (3-0) visit the ninth-ranked West Virginia Mountaineers (3-0) Saturday afternoon. Both teams rank in the top five in the country in passing yards per game, and both rank in the top 10 in terms of points scored per game. The game will be the first real test for both sides, and anything other than a high-scoring, fast-paced shootout would be a shock. Sitting in the top 10 in the national rankings and playing at home, the Mountaineers are 11-point favorites in the matchup.

Impressive quarterback play has been at the heart of both offenses. West Virginia’s Geno Smith has thrown for almost 1,100 yards and 12 scores, while completing a ridiculous 81.4 percent of his passes. Meanwhile, Baylor’s Nick Florence has done an admirable job of replacing Heisman winner Robert Griffin III, topping 1,000 yards and throwing 11 touchdowns. While both QBs have strong numbers, the edge has to go to Smith. After combining for 55 touchdowns compared to just 14 interceptions over the past two seasons, he has yet to throw a pick in 2012. Florence, on the other hand, has thrown four interceptions this season and doesn’t have the history of success that Smith has. In a big conference clash, Smith’s accuracy and ability to take care of the ball will pay dividends.

Both sides bring a dynamic receiving duo into the game, but again, West Virginia has a slight edge. Stedman Bailey and Tavon Austin are both averaging more than 100 yards and more than nine catches a game this year, and both have already hauled in five touchdowns. Baylor’s Terrance Williams and Tevin Reese have both topped 300 yards, as well, and combined for seven scores, but they have been living mainly on the deep ball. Both players are averaging more than 20 yards per reception, and while the numbers are impressive, the consistent production from Bailey and Austin both down the field and over the middle will make the Mountaineers’ passing attack the more reliable of the two Saturday.

Last but not least, the defenses will have a role in deciding the outcome. With two high-powered offenses going head to head, any stop or turnover will be crucial. While neither defense has been great in 2012, Baylor’s unit has been a bit more suspect. The Bears are allowing nearly 30 points per game to opponents, and last weekend, Louisiana-Monroe lit them up for 42 points. If the Warhawks were able to put up 40-plus points, a Heisman candidate like Smith and the Mountaineer’s pass-happy attack should have no trouble putting plenty of points on the board.

Don’t get me wrong. Baylor’s offense will hit its fair share of big plays against a West Virginia defense that is anything but elite. However, in a battle of two pass-first, offensive-minded teams, the Mountaineers have more firepower and a more experienced quarterback leading their offense. As good as Florence and the Bears’ passing attack have been, Smith and company have basically been flawless up to this point. The Mountaineers offense will strike early and often and won’t let up. Baylor will only be able to keep pace for so long, and even if the Bears only make a few mistakes, West Virginia will make them pay. Baylor’s defense is just too porous to pull off this upset.

Prediction: West Virginia Mountaineers (-11) Cover the Spread 

Baylor @ West Virginia Vegas Odds and Total
Line: West Virginia -11.5
Total: Over/Under 82
Television: 12:00 PM EST on FX

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