2012 College Football Picks: Arizona @ Oregon Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 9/22/2012

2012 College Football Picks: Arizona @ Oregon Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 9/22/2012: Arizona coach Rich Rodriguez and Oregon coach Chip Kelly go back a long way. The spread-option attack that Kelly has used to make Oregon one of the top programs in college football actually evolved from the similar system Rodriguez basically brought to the game and still uses today. In fact, Rodriguez played a role in teaching the basics of the offense to Kelly. While each coach has put their own spin on the spread-option, speed, speed and more speed remains at the heart of both attacks. When the 22nd-ranked Wildcats (3-0) and third-ranked Ducks (3-0) meet this weekend in Eugene, big plays should come early and often. The question is whether or not Rodriguez has amassed enough firepower to keep pace with the offensive juggernaut that is Oregon. At the very least, the Wildcats have to hang within 23 ½-points if they want to cover the spread.

Both systems have been working to perfection thus far in 2012. The Ducks rank fifth in the country in scoring, averaging 54.0 points per game, and rank seventh in total yardage. Meanwhile, the Wildcats rank 12th in scoring at 46.3 points per game and rank fourth in total yardage, averaging just over 600 yards of offense per game. Arizona has relied more on the pass and actually ranks seventh in the country in passing yards, but the Wildcats have a top-20 rushing attack, as well. The Ducks, on the other hand, have done most of their damage on the ground. Oregon currently ranks fourth in the nation in rushing yards, but at more than 267 passing yards per game, the offense still has plenty of balance. On paper, this matchup has all the makings of high-scoring affair filled with big plays.

While the Ducks have certainly had much more success in recent years, the Wildcats are the more tested team thus far. Oregon’s biggest win came against Fresno State, while Arizona has already knocked off 18th-ranked Oklahoma State. Granted, the Wildcats also needed overtime to get by Toledo in their season opener, but of the two teams, Arizona has the better resume entering Saturday’s showdown. At the very least, the Wildcats don’t have to head into the game wondering whether or not they can beat a ranked opponent.

Since neither side has an excess of talent on the defensive side of the ball, this game will likely come down to who has the most offensive firepower. Arizona’s Matt Scott and Oregon’s Marcus Mariotta are both first-year starters under center, and with both players completing over 70 percent of their passes and throwing just one interception a piece, it is tough to give either side an edge. The same can be said about the running back spot where both Arizona Ka’Deem Carey and Oregon’s Kenjon Barner are averaging more than 100 yards per game and are averaging 5.8 yards per carry.

However, the Ducks have one heck of a trump card in sophomore De’Anthony Thomas. He has four rushing touchdowns and three receiving touchdowns on just 24 touches this season, and he has rushed for an incredible 228 yards on just 13 carries. Thomas also returns kicks, and he is arguably the most dynamic and versatile offensive weapon in the game. He gives Oregon’s offense an added dimension that few teams can match, including Arizona. In a game that will likely boil down to who can score the most points, the edge in offensive weapons goes to Oregon.

With the Ducks built to win offensive shootouts, the only question that remains is whether or not Arizona can hang within the 23 ½-point spread. Oregon’s ability to move the ball on the ground consistently makes its offense the more reliable of the two. Granted, Arizona’s QB has played great thus far, but this game will be by far his toughest test. A few bad throws and stalled drives are all it will take for Kelly’s bunch to turn a close game into a blowout. The Wildcats will have their highlights and score some points, but the offensive juggernaut that is Oregon will overwhelm Arizona in the end.

Prediction: Oregon Ducks (-23 ½) Cover the Spread 

Arizona @ Oregon Vegas Odds and Total
Line: Oregon -21.5
Total: Over/Under 79
Television: 10:30 PM EST on ESPN

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