2012 College Football Picks and Odds: USC @ UCLA Predictions – Free College Football Picks 11/17/2012

2012 College Football Picks: USC @ UCLA Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 11/17/2012: The Pac-12 South Division title is up for grabs this Saturday when the 18th-ranked USC Trojans (7-3, 5-3 Pac-12) taken on the 17th-ranked UCLA Bruins (8-2, 5-2 Pac-12). Despite having a shot at the division crown, the season has been a colossal disappointment for a USC bunch that started the year ranked No.1 in the country. Meanwhile, the Bruins are looking to earn a division title this time around after backing into the crown last season because of USC’s postseason ban. Regardless of the circumstances, the winner of Saturday’s battle for Los Angeles clinches a spot in the Pac-12 title game and controls its own destiny as far as an automatic BCS bowl bid is concerned. Throw in the fact that this is a rivalry game, and an intense battle should be on tap. Oddsmakers are expecting a tight contest, and the Trojans are 3 ½-point favorites on the road.

Both teams have different offensive philosophies but have been equally productive. Led by quarterback Matt Barkley and receivers Marqise Lee and Robert Woods, the Trojans have one of the top passing attacks in the country, and running back Silas Redd is a solid counterpunch on the ground. Meanwhile, running back Johnathan Franklin leads an excellent UCLA ground game while improving QB Brett Hundley has provided balance in the passing game. Despite the differences, both teams are averaging right around 37 points per contest on the season.

Defensively, both sides rank in the top 50 in points allowed and are giving up about 24 points a game. However, consistency has been the biggest issue for both units. The Bruins have allowed more than 40 points to opponents on three occasions this year. Meanwhile, the Trojans allowed 39 points in a loss to Arizona and 61 in a loss to Oregon.

The Trojans Win If:

While Barkley and the passing game are the backbone of the offense, running back Silas Redd is having a strong season and provides plenty of balance. The Trojans can sometimes fall in love with big plays, and trying to push the ball down the field too frequently can lead to quick three and outs and even turnovers. When they have struggled on offense, they have been their own worst enemy, and it has created easy scoring opportunities for opponents. Facing a UCLA defense that has its holes, Barkley and company can’t forget about the ground game. There is nothing wrong with long, sustained drives, and if USC remembers that this weekend, the Trojans have more than enough firepower on offense to outscore the Bruins.

The Bruins Win If:

Franklin carried the UCLA offense early in the year, but the recent evolution of Hundley has taken the Bruins to another level. The freshman QB has thrown 10 touchdowns in the last three games, and UCLA has averaged more than 48 points per game during the stretch. If Hundley continues to provide a strong counterpunch to Franklin and the ground game, the Bruins can exploit a USC defense that has issues consistently stopping opponents. If Hundley struggles and turns the ball over, UCLA won’t be able to keep up with the Trojans’ offense.

Bottom Line:

If you look at the games wear UCLA’s defense has struggled, it becomes very clear that the Bruins could be in serious trouble Saturday. Washington State’s Connor Halliday threw four 330 yards and five scores, Arizona State’s Taylor Kelly threw for 315 yards and four scores and California’s Zach Maynard threw for 295 yards and four scores. Enter USC’s high-powered passing attack, and after allowing such big games to otherwise average QBs, the chances of UCLA containing Barkley and company are slim. The Bruins are sure to get their share of points against a USC defense that seems to struggle to focus at times, but the Trojans have enough firepower to take advantage if a suspect UCLA secondary and outscore their rivals.

Prediction: USC Trojans (-3 ½) Cover the Spread 

USC @ UCLA Vegas Odds and Total
Line: USC -3.5
Total: Over/Under 64.5
Television: 3 PM EST on FOX

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