2012 College Football Picks: Texas @ Texas Tech Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 11/3/2012: Six of the 10 team in the Big 12 are currently ranked in the top 25, and two of them will go head to head this weekend when the 23rd-ranked Texas Longhorns (6-2, 3-2 Big 12) travel to Lubbock to face the 18th-ranked Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-2, 3-2 Big 12). Of course, the loser of Saturday’s game will likely slip out of the top 25, and while neither team is in contention for the conference title, sticking in the top 25 has big implications as far as recruiting is concerned. Throw in the fact that these teams are in-state rivals, and there will be plenty of intensity in this one. Armed with home-field advantage, the Red Raiders are 6 ½-point favorites.
Although the Red Raiders are known for their pass-happy system, Texas actually brings the better scoring offense into Saturday’s matchup. The Longhorns rank eighth in the country in scoring at 41.5 points per game. A power running game led by Joe Bergeron and Johnathan Gray has been the backbone, and improved play from quarterback David Ash has taken the offense to a new level. Of course, Texas Tech’s offense isn’t exactly having a down year. The Red Raiders rank 12th in the country in scoring at 40.5 points per game, and quarterback Seth Doege leads the third-ranked passing attack. Doege has already thrown for 30 touchdowns this year, and his favorite target Eric Ward has been on the receiving end of 10 of them.
Defensively, both teams have had issues. Texas Tech ranks 57th in the country in points allowed, giving up almost 26 per game. The Red Raiders have been even worse in recent weeks, allowing three of their last four opponents to top the 40-point mark. Shockingly, the Longhorns have been even worse. Texas ranks 100th in the country in scoring defense this season with opponents putting up almost 33 per contest. Five of the Longhorns’ last six opponents have topped the 30-point mark, and three teams have scored more than 40 points during the stretch.
The Longhorns Win If:
Although David Ash has progressed as a quarterback, the Longhorns running game is still their most reliable weapon on offense. In this matchup, their power running game is also their biggest asset. The Red Raiders want a fast-paced, high-scoring game, but if Texas can dictate the speed of the game with a ground-and-pound strategy, Doege and company will be stuck on the sidelines. If the two-headed monster of Gray and Bergeron move the chains and control the clock, the Longhorns can wear down an average Texas Tech defense while protecting their own struggling unit. If Texas’ rushing attack dominates this game, the Longhorns can win.
The Red Raiders Win If:
While Texas Tech has made strides on the defensive side of the ball this year, the Red Raiders are still an offensive-minded team. When they are moving the ball on the offensive end and scoring points, everything else falls into place. If Doege and his receivers are clicking from the start, Texas Tech should pile up points on the struggling the Texas defense. A high-scoring game definitely plays to the strengths of the Red Raiders, and a big game from Doege and company means a big win for Texas Tech.
Bottom Line:
Despite having plenty of talented players, the Longhorns are a flat out disaster on the defensive side of the ball. If they aren’t the worst tackling team in the country, they are definitely among the 10 worst. Texas has faced four high-powered, pass-first offenses this year and has allowed an average of 49.3 points in those games. Texas Tech may not have the best defense in the world, but the Red Raiders offense has more than enough firepower to torch the porous Longhorns defense, and they have won every game this year when they have scored more than 24 points. Doege will add his name to the list of QBs that have shredded Texas this year, and Texas Tech will notch a win over its in-state rival.
Prediction: Texas Tech Red Raiders (-6 ½) Cover the Spread
Texas @ Texas Tech Vegas Odds and Total
Line: Texas Tech -6.5
Total: Over/Under 67.5
Television: 3:30 PM EST
Stop by NSAwins.com daily throughout the NCAA Football season for daily Hesiman Trophy Vegas Odds and College Football Odds plus daily updated BCS National Championship Betting Odds and 2012 College Bowl Odds.
| 2 EASY STEPS to BET on the 2012 College Football Odds! STEP 1: CLICK HERE to OPEN BOVADA Account STEP 2: Deposit with Credit Card or Deposit by Check and get a 20% BONUS instantly FREE. |