2012 College Football Picks: Texas Tech @ TCU Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 10/20/2012: The battle for the top spot in the Big 12 is heating up with seven of the 10 teams in the conference currently ranked in the top 25 and four of teams sitting one game back of undefeated Kansas State. Two of these teams will battle this weekend when the 17th-ranked Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-1, 2-1 Big 12) go on the road to face the 23rd-ranked TCU Horned Frogs (5-1, 2-1 Big 12). The loser of Saturday’s game is going to basically be eliminated from the Big 12 title race so there is plenty on the line. Oddsmakers are expecting a tight one, and the Red Raiders are 1 ½-point favorites on the road.
In terms of confidence, Texas Tech has the edge. The Red Raiders bring a ton of momentum into the matchup, having just throttled then-undefeated West Virginia last weekend 49-14. Meanwhile, TCU is dealing trying to adjust to life without starting running back Waymon James and starting quarterback Casey Pachall. Needless to say, the Horned Frogs’ offense isn’t as explosive as it was at the start of the year. Texas Tech, on the other hand, ranks 16th in the country in scoring at 40.7 points per game and fourth in passing at 369.0 yards per game. Red Raiders’ QB Seth Doege has already thrown 21 touchdowns this season.
Although the game appears to be a bit of a mismatch on the offensive side of the ball, both teams have been getting the job done on defense. The Red Raiders rank 16th in scoring defense, allowing just 16.3 points per game. Meanwhile, TCU has been even better, ranking 10th in the country in scoring defense at 14.5 points per game. For the Horned Frogs, freshman defensive end Devonte Fields is a budding star of the unit. He has 6.5 sacks and 11.5 tackles through six games.
The Red Raiders Win If:
Facing a TCU offense that has been forced to start a freshman under center, the Red Raiders need to push the tempo on offense with their passing attack and pressure the pocket on defense. If Texas Tech hangs 40-plus points on the board, the Horned Frogs don’t have the firepower to keep pace. However, Doege also has to avoid making mistakes. The last thing the Red Raiders went to do is allow the TCU defense to put points on the board or set up its offense with a short field. As long as Texas Tech can avoid getting into a low-scoring defensive battle with the Horned Frogs, the Red Raiders superior offense should carry them to a win.
The Horned Frogs Win If:
With two major parts missing on offense, the Horned Frogs aren’t going to be able to outscore Texas Tech in a shootout. However, TCU still has an elite defense, and if the Horned Frogs can pressure Doege and take away the big plays in the passing game, they won’t have to score a bunch to win. More importantly, Freshman QB Trevone Boykin has to play well if TCU is going to win Saturday. He has made two starts since stepping in for Pachall, throwing three interceptions in a loss to Iowa State and throwing four touchdowns in a victory over Baylor. If Boykin can keep his turnovers in check, the Horned Frogs can grind out a win in a defensive battle.
Bottom Line:
Take away the game against Iowa State when Boykin struggled in his first start, and TCU has not allowed an opponent to score more than 21 points. One of those games came against a Baylor team that uses a pass-first attack very similar to the one Texas Tech uses. The Red Raiders aren’t going to find the same easy scores against the Horned Frogs that they did against the horrendous West Virginia secondary, and they are going to have to methodically drive the ball down the field if they want to score. That style of play favors TCU, and with Boykin getting progressively more comfortable as the starter, the Horned Frogs will have enough offense to support their defense in a battle with a Texas Tech team that has had a nasty habit of slumping after big wins the last few seasons.
Prediction: TCU Horned Frogs (+1 ½) Cover the Spread
Texas Tech @ TCU Vegas Odds and Total
Line: Texas Tech -2
Total: Over/Under 55.5
Television: 3:30 PM EST on ABC
Stop by NSAwins.com daily throughout the NCAA Football season for daily Hesiman Trophy Vegas Odds and College Football Odds plus daily updated BCS National Championship Betting Odds and 2012 College Bowl Odds.
| 2 EASY STEPS to BET on the 2012 College Football Odds! STEP 1: CLICK HERE to OPEN BOVADA Account STEP 2: Deposit with Credit Card or Deposit by Check and get a 20% BONUS instantly FREE. |