2012 College Football Picks and Odds: Texas Tech @ Oklahoma St Predictions – Free College Football Picks 11/17/2012

2012 College Football Picks: Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 11/17/2012: An entertaining Big 12 battle could be on tap this Saturday when the 23rd-ranked Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-3, 4-3 Big 12) travel to Stillwater to face the 24th-ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-3, 4-2 Big 12). Although neither team is in the hunt for the conference title, both have high-powered offenses and both can put a ton of points on the board. If you like offense, this game should be right up your ally. Points are likely to start coming early and often, and big plays should be plentiful. Playing at home, the Cowboys are 10 ½-point favorites.

Both teams can throw the ball with the best of them. In fact, Texas Tech owns the top passing attack in the country while the Cowboys aren’t far behind with the fourth-best passing game. Quarterback Seth Doege runs the show for the Red Raiders, and he has already thrown for more than 3,300 yards and has 34 scores. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State has had multiple injuries at the QB spot, and third-string junior Clint Chelf has been forced under center the past couple of weeks.

While both teams have high-powered, spread passing attacks, the Cowboys also have a top-25 rushing offense. Led by back Joseph Randle, the Cowboys are averaging more than 200 yards per game on the ground. The balance has helped Oklahoma State fourth in total yards and third in points per game (43.9) Meanwhile the Red Raiders rank outside the top 80 in rushing yards and 18th in points at 38.7 per game.

The Red Raiders Win If:

The Red Raiders’ offense always piles up a bunch of passing yards, but they sometimes have trouble finishing off drives. If they are going to upset the Cowboys, the Red Raiders can’t afford to settle for field goals or come away empty when they get near the goal line. Speeding up the pace of the game will also benefit Texas Tech. As powerful as the Cowboys’ offense is, the Red Raiders thrive in fast-paced, high-scoring games. The Red Raiders use a lot of short and mid-range passing routes, and when opposing defenses get tired, those shorter passes turn into big plays in a hurry. Doege and company need to establish their type of tempo early in the game, and if they do, they can wear down and outscore Oklahoma State.

The Cowboys Win If:

While Mike Gundy’s high-powered passing attack grabs the headlines, the Cowboys’ balance on offense is incredibly underrated. The counterpunch the Randle and the ground game can provide will be crucial in this matchup with the Red Raiders. If Oklahoma State maintains a balanced approach on offense, the Cowboys can control the pace of the game, pushing the tempo when they have the momentum and slowing the pace if their defense needs a rest or the Red Raiders are clicking on offense. Texas Tech’s best chance of winning comes if this game turns into a complete pass-happy shootout, but Oklahoma State can take that out of the equation by making sure not to forget about the running game.

Bottom Line:

Texas Tech might be better off if they never win another big game. The Red Raiders went into the tank after upsetting Oklahoma last year, and they have gone down a similar path since knocking off then-undefeated West Virginia. Since beating the Mountaineers, the Red Raiders have needed triple overtime to beat a TCU team starting a backup QB, gotten crushed by Kansas State, managed just 22 points in a loss to a Texas team with a terrible defense and needed overtime to get past a horrible Kansas team. Texas Tech is heading in the wrong direction and headed there fast. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have won four of their last five games and continue to click on offense despite the QB changes. Playing at home, Oklahoma State’s balanced, high-scoring offense should continue to roll and roll right by a slumping Texas Tech bunch.

Prediction: Oklahoma State Cowboys (-10 ½) Cover the Spread 

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma St Vegas Odds and Total
Line: Oklahoma St -10
Total: Over/Under 72.5
Television: 3:30 PM EST on FSN

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