2012 College Football Picks: Texas Tech @ Kansas St Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 10/27/2012: The top spot in the Big 12 is up for grabs this weekend when the 14th-ranked Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-1, 3-1 Big 12) head to Manhattan to face the third-ranked Kansas State Wildcats (7-0, 4-0 Big 12). While the Wildcats are looking to take a commanding lead in the battle for the conference crown and stay in the national title conversation, the Red Raiders are trying to ruin the championship hopes of another Big 12 rival. The game is also a battle of Heisman contenders, and while Kansas State quarterback Collin Klein is currently the frontrunner, Texas Tech QB Seth Doege could easily change that with a big performance Saturday. Needless to say, there is plenty at stake for both sides, but playing at home, the Wildcats are 7 ½-point favorites.
Offensively, the two teams are polar opposites but equally productive. Both teams are averaging an identical 42.9 points per game this season, which ties them for the 10th-best average in the country. Texas Tech relies on a high-powered passing attack. Doege has thrown a FBS-leading 28 touchdowns this season, and the Red Raiders rank fourth in the country in passing at 361.7 yards per game. Kansas State, on the other hand, relies on a power rushing attack led by Klein and running back John Hubert. The two have combined for 22 touchdowns on the ground this year, and the Wildcats have the 14th-best rushing attack, averaging 233.9 yards per game.
On the defensive side of the ball, both teams have been solid most of the year, and both held the high-powered offense of West Virginia two just 14 points. However, Kansas State has definitely been the better unit, ranking 14th in the country in terms of points allowed at just 16.1 per game. The Wildcats haven’t allowed an opponent to score more than 21 points all year. In contrast, the Red Raiders have allowed two of their last three opponents to top 40 points.
The Red Raiders Win If:
Doege has been on fire the last two weeks, throwing 13 touchdowns compared to no interceptions. Playing a Kansas State team that likes to control the pace of the game with its rushing attach, the Red Raiders need to score early and often and turn this game into a shootout. While the Wildcats may score a ton of points, their offense isn’t built to come from behind. If Doege and the Red Raiders take care of business on offense, they can neutralize the physical running of Klein by turning him into a passer and force the Kansas State defense to spend a lot more time on the field than it has been used. A high-scoring game plays to the strengths of Texas Tech.
The Wildcats Win If:
Plain and simple, the Wildcats have an edge in physicality in the trenches on both sides of the ball. If the Wildcats utilize this advantage, the Red Raiders are going to be in trouble. Klein and company need to establish the run early on offense, controlling the clock and tiring out the Red Raiders’ defense. Meanwhile, the Kansas State defense needs to pressure Doege, disrupting the Texas Tech passing attack and limiting the big plays. If the Wildcats make sure this game is played in a grinding style and at their pace, the Red Raiders don’t have the muscle in the trenches to survive.
Bottom Line:
While Texas Tech has made big strides on the defensive side of the ball this year, the Red Raiders have been exposed a bit in conference play. They allowed 41 points in an ugly loss to Oklahoma in Lubbock, and they allowed 53 points to a TCU team last weekend that was missing its starting quarterback and starting running back. Meanwhile, Kansas State went on the road and held the same high-powered Oklahoma offense to just 19 points. The Wildcats’ defense is for real, and the power running and playmaking ability of Klein makes the offense tough to stop. Kansas State will control the pace of the game with its rushing attack like it has all season, taking the air out of the Texas Tech passing attack and wearing down the Red Raiders’ defense. Klein will continue his march to the Heisman while the Wildcats continue their march to a Big 12 title.
Prediction: Kansas State Wildcats (-7 ½) Cover the Spread
Texas Tech @ Kansas St Vegas Odds and Total
Line: Kansas St -7.5
Total: Over/Under 60.5
Television: 3:30 PM EST
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