2012 College Football Picks and Odds: Texas @ Oklahoma Predictions – Free College Football Picks 10/13/2012

2012 College Football Picks: Texas @ Oklahoma Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 10/13/2012: The Red River Rivalry game between Texas and Oklahoma has decided the Big 12 champion on many occasions, but the weekend’s meeting will be an exception. When the 15th-ranked Longhorns (4-1, 1-1 Big 12) face the 13th-ranked Sooners (3-1, 1-1 Big 12) Saturday in Cowboys Stadium, the season will be on the line for both teams. A second loss for either side would be devastating for both conference title hopes as well as any hope of reaching a BCS bowl. Even though neither team is undefeated, there is still plenty left to play for in this heated rivalry.

Unlike past seasons when the Oklahoma offense has battled the Texas defense, this year’s game could see plenty of offense from both sides. In fact, the Longhorns actually bring the more productive scoring attack into the matchup, ranking sixth in the country at 46.8 points per game. The Sooners bring a top-25 scoring offense in their own right, and another Big 12 high-scoring shootout could be on tap in this one. As they try for their third straight Red River Shootout win, the Sooners are three-point favorites this weekend.

The Longhorns Win If:

Sophomore quarterback David Ash has blossomed this season, and he enters Saturday with 11 passing touchdowns and just one interception to go along with a 77.5 completion percentage. A reliable passing game is exactly what Texas has lacked in its losses to Oklahoma the past two seasons, and as long as Ash continues to play at his current level, the Longhorns will be able to score points an Oklahoma defense that has yet to face an offense that can run and throw the ball at a high level. Meanwhile, Alex Okafor and the Texas defense need to put pressure on Oklahoma QB Landry Jones. The one-time Heisman candidate has looked uncomfortable since late last year, and if the Longhorns can force him into a few mistakes, the offense can do the rest.

The Sooners Win If:

While Oklahoma’s normally high-powered passing attack has seemingly vanished, one of the benefits has been a rededication to the running game. The Sooners are now a much more balanced offensive team and rank in the top 40 in both rushing and passing yards. If Oklahoma’s offense can keep a struggling Texas defense guessing, the Sooners should put up plenty of points. More importantly, the Oklahoma offense can help the defense by limiting the turnovers and winning the field position battle. While the Longhorns have given up a ton of yards and points on defense, they have also created turnovers. If the Sooners make Texas work for their points, they can outscore the Longhorns and win the game.

Bottom Line:

While they Oklahoma offense looks good on paper, the numbers become a lot more pedestrian if you throw out a 69-point outburst against Florida A&M. In two of the team’s other three games, the Sooners have managed just 24 points or less, including a 24-19 loss to Kansas State. The Wildcats were easily the toughest competition Oklahoma has faced to date, and the Longhorns are on the same level. Yes, the Texas defense is going to give the Sooners some scoring chances, but the Longhorns are to do plenty of scoring, as well. Meanwhile, Jones just hasn’t been the same player since receiver Ryan Broyles has been gone, and he hasn’t proven he can put up enough points to win big games. The trend will continue, and the Longhorns will make sure Jones doesn’t finish his career with a flawless record in the Red River Shootout.

Prediction: Texas Longhorns (+3) Cover the Spread

Texas @ Oklahoma Vegas Odds and Total
Line: Oklahoma -3.5
Total: Over/Under 62.5
Television: 12 PM EST on ABC

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