2012 College Football Picks: Texas A&M @ Mississippi St Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 11/3/2012: While Alabama and LSU are set to battle for the top spot in the SEC West this weekend, the 16th-ranked Texas A&M Aggies (6-2, 3-2 SEC) and 15th-ranked Mississippi State Bulldogs (7-1, 3-1 SEC) will be battling it out for third place in the division. Neither side has been able to take down the top teams in the SEC just yet, but whichever team wins Saturday will make an important statement as far as trying to move up in the hierarchy of the nations’ toughest conference is concerned. Despite playing on the road, Texas A&M is a seven-point favorite.
Offensively, the Aggies definitely have the edge on paper. Texas A&M ranks in the top 20 nationally in both rushing yards and passing yards and are third in the country in scoring at 45.5 points per game. Dual-threat quarterback Johnny Manziel has been the centerpiece of the attack. Entering Saturday’s game, he has thrown for more than 2,200 yards, run for nearly 800 more and combined for 29 touchdowns. Meanwhile, Mississippi State’s offense ranks 60th or worse in both rushing and passing and ranks outside the top 40 in scoring. Running back LaDarius Perkins has been a workhorse of the offense, while quarterback Tyler Russell has been efficient, throwing 15 touchdowns compared to just two interceptions.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Bulldogs have a top-15 scoring defense and are allowing just 17.4 points per game. Texas A&M, on the other hand, ranks outside the top 30 in scoring defense at 22.0 points per game. That being said, the Aggies have held all five SEC opponents to 27 points or less while the Bulldogs have allowed two of their four conference foes to surpass the 30-point mark.
The Aggies Win If:
Although Manziel’s explosive playmaking has gotten a lot of attention, Texas A&M has been tough up front on both sides of the ball. Offensive tackle Luke Joeckel and defensive end Damontre Moore are both going to be first-round picks, and if the Aggies beat Mississippi State in the trenches, they can make life tough for an average Bulldogs’ offense while opening up some big play opportunities for Manziel. If Texas A&M gets its offense rolling early, the Bulldogs just don’t have enough firepower on offense to catch back up.
The Bulldogs Win If:
Until last weekend against Alabama, the Bulldogs had been winning with a strong running game, efficient passing game and stout defense. Mississippi State can follow that formula, but only if they don’t fall behind early. The Bulldogs can’t afford a sloppy start, especially against the Aggies. Texas A&M is at its best when the pace picks up, and if the Bulldogs can limit possessions by controlling the clock with their running game and limit the big plays for Manziel and the Aggies’ offense, they can slow down Texas A&M enough to win the game.
Bottom Line:
At the end of the day, Mississippi State’s game against Alabama revealed a lot about the Bulldogs. Their three SEC wins have come against teams that have gone a combined 0-17 in conference play. Meanwhile, the Aggies’ two losses have come by a combined eight points against a pair of top-10 teams in Florida and LSU. Not to mention the fact that Texas A&M has the best offensive weapon in Manziel, defensive playmaker in Moore and overall player in Joeckel. The Aggies will be more physical at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, and Manziel and the offense will put up too many points for the Bulldogs to keep pace.
Prediction: Texas A&M Aggies (-7) Cover the Spread
Texas A&M @ Mississippi St Vegas Odds and Total
Line: Texas A&M -7
Total: Over/Under 60.5
Television: 12 PM EST
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