2012 College Football Picks: South Carolina @ LSU Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 10/13/2012: It seems like every week of the college football season there are two top-10 teams from the SEC going at it, and this week is no exception. Fresh off a dominating win over fifth-ranked Georgia, the third-ranked South Carolina Gamecocks (6-0, 4-0 SEC) will try to keep their national title hopes alive when they visit the ninth-ranked LSU Tigers (5-1, 1-1 SEC) Saturday night. The Tigers saw their championship dreams take a big hit after a surprise loss to Florida last weekend in Gainesville, but Les Miles’ bunch is back home in “Death Valley” where they are always tough to beat. Needless to say, it is big game for the conference and national title chances of both teams.
In many ways, the teams are mirror images of one another.South Carolina and LSU both win by playing stout defense and by running the ball. In fact, both sides bring a top-10 scoring defense into Saturday’s showdown with the Gamecocks allowing just 10.5 points per game and the Tigers allowing just 12.8 points per game. The strength of both defenses starts with the defensive line, and while LSU’s Sam Montgomery and Barkevious Mingo are future first-round picks in the NFL Draft, South Carolina’s Jadeveon Clowney is looking like the future No. 1 overall pick. There should be an absolute war in the trenches in this one.
Offensively, both sides will lean mainly on the running game. The Gamecocks will count on workhorse running back Marcus Lattimore to shoulder the load while the Tigers will rely on a committee of backs headed by Spencer Ware and Kenny Hilliard. South Carolina does have a slight edge at the quarterback spot thanks to the scrambling ability of Connor Shaw, but LSU has an edge in the special teams department thanks to kicker Drew Alleman and punter Brad Wing. On paper, these two teams are pretty evenly matched, but playing at home, the Tigers are 2 ½-point favorites.
The Gamecocks Win If:
If Clowney and the Gamecocks’ defense stuff the LSU running game and force Tigers’ QB Zach Mettenberger to pass, this game could get ugly. Mettenberger has looked uncomfortable all season in his first year as starter, and as long as the Gamecocks aren’t mentally rattled by playing in a tough road environment, they have a defense capable of shutting down even the best signal callers.South Carolina also has the X-factor on offense in this matchup in the form of Shaw. He is improving as a passer, and he has shown time and time again that he can make plays outside of the pocket with his legs. If Shaw plays mistake free football and extends drives with his scrambling ability, the Gamecocks should be able to manufacture enough points to back their stingy defense.
The Tigers Win If:
LSU’s bread and butter is its running game, but Mettenberger has to get some production out of the passing game to keep the South Carolina defense honest. If he can manage the game and convert a few first downs through the air, it will go a long way to jumpstarting the stagnant offense. More importantly, it will keep the Tigers’ defense rested. LSU has enough playmakers on its defense to stifle the Gamecocks and create a few turnovers, but Mettenberger and the offense have to help them out. LSU’s most important player in this game is Mettenberger, and if he plays even a decent game, the Tigers’ defense and running game can do the rest.
Bottom Line:
Last weekend, the Gamecocks held a Georgia offense averaging almost 50 points per game and running the ball at will to zero points until a garbage time score with two minutes to go. Now,South Carolina gets to face an LSU offense with a banged up offensive line and a struggling quarterback that is averaging 9.0 points per game in SEC play. Yes, LSU’s stout defense will keep the unspectacular South Carolina offense in check, but thanks to the ineptitude of the Tigers’ own offense, their defense is going to wear down. It happened last weekend against the Gators, and Florida running back Mike Gillislee was able to run all over the LSU defense in the fourth quarter.South Carolina will use a similar recipe for success with Lattimore and pull out a huge road win.
Prediction: South Carolina Gamecocks (+2 ½) Cover the Spread
South Carolina @ LSU Vegas Odds and Total
Line: LSU -2.5
Total: Over/Under 39.5
Television: 8 PM EST on ESPN
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