2012 College Football Picks: Oklahoma State @ Kansas State Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 11/3/2012: Last year, Kansas State pushed then-undefeated Oklahoma State to the brink, nearly pulling off an upset in a back-and-forth 52-45 shootout. This year, the second-ranked Wildcats (8-0, 5-0 Big 12) are undefeated, and the 24th-ranked Cowboys (5-2, 3-1 Big 12) are looking to play the role of spoiler. Not to mention the fact that a win for Oklahoma State would put Mike Gundy’s bunch in control of its own destiny as far as the conference title is concerned. Meanwhile, a victory for Kansas State would essentially give the Wildcats a two-game lead in the Big 12 with three games to play. Playing at home Kansas State is a nine-point favorite.
Offensively, these two teams are more than capable of producing another high-scoring shootout. Led by a top-20 rushing offense, the Wildcats rank fifth in the country in scoring at 44.4 points per game. Kansas State’s ground game is powered by dual-threat quarterback Collin Klein, but speedy back John Hubert provides a nice counterpunch to Klein’s bulldozing style. The Cowboys, on the other hand, use a more balanced approach. Quarterback Wes Lunt leads the sixth-ranked passing attack in the country, while Joseph Randle heads a top-15 rushing attack. Overall, the Cowboys rank just behind the Wildcats in scoring, averaging 44.3 points per game.
The two teams are not as evenly matched on the defensive side of the ball. The Wildcats rank 13th in the country in scoring defense and are holding opponents to just 17.1 points per game. More importantly, Kansas State hasn’t allowed an opponent to score more than 24 points all year. On the flip side, Oklahoma State ranks outside the top 40 in scoring defense and has given up more than 40 points twice, losing both games.
The Cowboys Win If:
While Oklahoma State’s passing attack is one of the best in the country, Randle and the ground game could be the key to pulling off an upset. If Oklahoma State can establish balance on offense, it will keep the Kansas State defense guessing. The Wildcats’ offense and defense feed of each other by, and if the Cowboys can produce consistent scoring drives on offense, they will kill two birds with one stone. Kansas State’s power running can’t wear down Oklahoma State’s defense if Klein and company aren’t on the field, and the Kansas State defense can’t gamble and blitz if Randle is doing damage. A strong showing from Randle and the Cowboys’ offense will give Oklahoma State a chance at the upset.
The Wildcats Win If:
Kansas State’s formula for success has been simple. Klein and the offense have used the running game to dictate tempo and set up well-timed big plays in the passing game. As long as the Wildcats establish the run early against Oklahoma State, the rest of the pieces will fall again in place. If the Cowboys’ defense wears down and Oklahoma State falls behind, Kansas State’s defense can pin its ears back and attack Lunt. If that happens, things could get ugly for Oklahoma State.
Bottom Line:
Kansas State is no stranger to facing high-powered offenses. In fact, the Wildcats have already faced experienced, productive quarterbacks Geno Smith, Landry Jones and Seth Doege and have allowed just an average of 19.0 points. There is no reason to think the Wildcats can’t do the same to an Oklahoma State offense led by a freshman QB. Meanwhile, Klein and has Kansas State offense have pounded and worn down every defense they have faced this season, and a mediocre Cowboys’ defense isn’t going to fare any better. West Virginia and Texas Tech have a lot of similarities with Oklahoma State, and the Wildcats spent the last two weeks beating the Mountaineers and Red Raiders by a combined score of 110-38. The Cowboys will join the list of victims this weekend.
Prediction: Kansas State Wildcats (-8) Cover the Spread
Oklahoma State @ Kansas State Vegas Odds and Total
Line: Kansas St -8
Total: Over/Under 67
Television: 8 PM EST on ABC
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