2012 College Football Picks and Odds: Mississippi State @ Alabama Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 10/27/2012

2012 College Football Picks: Mississippi State @ Alabama Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 10/27/2012: A pair of undefeated teams will go at it Saturday night when the top-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide (7-0, 4-0 SEC) host the 11th-ranked Mississippi State Bulldogs (7-0, 3-0 SEC). For Alabama, the game is a chance to knock off another ranked opponent and continue their quest to repeat as national champs. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs have a chance to prove that their hot start is no fluke by upsetting the No. 1 team in the country. Throw in the fact that the winner of the game will control its own destiny in the SEC West, and both sides have plenty riding on Saturday’s showdown. Although both teams are undefeated, the Crimson Tide are hefty 24-point favorites at home.

Offensively, both teams have strong running games backed by efficient passing games. That being said, Alabama has had the more productive offense thus far. The Crimson Tide rank 14th in the country in scoring at 41.0 points per game and 21st in rushing at 219.4 per game. Alabama has used a two-headed monster of Eddie Lacy and T.J. Yeldon at running back while quarterback A.J. McCarron has yet to throw an interception. Meanwhile, Mississippi State ranks 27th in the country in scoring at 36.7 points per game. Running back LaDarius Perkins has rushed for more than 700 yards, and quarterback Tyler Russell has thrown 15 touchdowns compared to just one interception.

Although both offenses have been solid, the real strength of both teams has been their defenses. In fact, Alabama owns the top-ranked scoring defense in the country, allowing just 8.3 points per game. The Crimson Tide have yet to allow an opponent to score more than 14 points in a game this season. The Bulldogs have a top-10 scoring defense in their own right, allowing just 14.4 points per game. Mississippi State has held five of its seven opponents to 14 points or less.

The Bulldogs Win If:

There really isn’t a formula for beating Alabama, but the only game the Crimson Tide lost was a low-scoring, overtime game against LSU last season. If the Bulldogs are going to pull off an upset, they have to find a way to turn this game ugly right from the start. Mississippi State currently owns the best turnover differential in the country, and if the defense can get a few takeaways while the offense protects the ball and bleeds the clock, the Bulldogs will have a puncher’s chance. If Mississippi State can keep this game close, there is a chance that the heavily-favored Crimson Tide could start to get tight as their national title hopes hang in the balance. The key for the Bulldogs will be to keep the score low and hope for the best.

The Crimson Tide Win If:

Alabama has the best offensive line in the country by a wide margin, and with two talented running backs rotating and staying fresh, there isn’t a defense around that can shut them down for four quarters. As long as McCarron continues to play mistake-free football, the Crimson Tide’s power running game is going to wear down the Bulldogs’ defense and put plenty of points on the board. Meanwhile, Alabama’s defense just needs to stay the course and shut down Mississippi State’s ground game, forcing Russell to try his luck with the opportunistic Crimson Tide secondary. Power running and a stingy defense has given Alabama two national titles in three years, and it can give the Crimson Tide a win Saturday.

Bottom Line:

Mississippi State deserves a lot of credit. Being undefeated this late in the season, especially in the SEC, is no easy accomplishment. However, it is worth noting that the Bulldogs’ three conference wins have come against teams that have combined for zero wins in SEC play. Now, they have to take on an Alabama team that has been running over every opponent that stands in their way. The Crimson Tide have won six of their seven games by more than 30 points, and a 19-point win was their closest margin to date. Mississippi State has been making a living on creating turnovers, but against Nick Saban’s disciplined offense, takeaways are going to be few and far between. Meanwhile, Alabama’s defense is allowing less than 60 rushing yards a game, and the Bulldogs are going to find it next to impossible to establish their typical balance on offense. Add it all up, and the No. 1 team in the country should dominate on both sides of the ball and notch another big win.

Prediction: Alabama Crimson Tide (-24) Cover the Spread

Mississippi State @ Alabama Vegas Odds and Total
Line: Alabama -23.5
Total: Over/Under 46.5
Television: 8:30 PM EST on ESPN

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