2012 College Football Picks: Mississippi St @ LSU Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 11/10/2012: Fresh off a big win over rival LSU, the top-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide (9-0, 6-0 SEC) have a big opportunity in front of them this weekend when they face the 15th-ranked Texas A&M Aggies (7-2, 4-2 SEC). A victory for Alabama would clinch the SEC West, keeping them on track for a conference title and a trip back to the BCS title game to defend their championship. While the Aggies may not be able to win the division or the conference, an upset of the Crimson Tide would be a huge step forward for the program and a big boost to the Heisman hopes of quarterback Johnny Manziel. However, the Aggies have already lost two games to top-10 opponents this season, and they are 14-point underdogs against the defending champs.
Offensively, neither team is a juggernaut. Both teams rank outside the top 40 in the country in scoring, and LSU is actually outside the top 50 in scoring. The Bulldogs do have a balanced offense with running back LaDarius Perkins leading the ground attack and quarterback Tyler Russell leading the passing attack. However, balance is not the same as effectiveness, and Mississippi State ranks outside the top 60 in both rushing and passing yards. The Tigers on the other hand, have an excellent power running game fueled by a finally-healthy offensive line and a quartet of capable running backs. On the flip side, quarterback Zach Mettenberger and the passing game have provided little support, and LSU currently ranks 100th in passing offense.
On the defensive side of the ball, both teams rank in the top 25 in fewest points allowed. In fact, both sides are allowing less than 20 points per game. LSU actually ranks in the top 10 in fewest points allowed, and the Tigers have yet to surrender more than 22 points to an opponent. The defensive line is the strength of LSU’s unit, and defensive ends Sam Montgomery and Barkevious Mingo might be the best duo in the country.
The Bulldogs Win If:
Points are likely going to be tough to come by for the Bulldogs, and turning Saturday’s game into a low-scoring affair is their best chance. Russell and Perkins have to establish balance on the offensive end to slow down the LSU defensive line, and Russell in particular needs to avoid turnovers. Plain and simple, Mississippi State won’t win this game if they give the Tigers’ offense a short field to work with on a regular basis. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs’ defense has to sell out against the run and force Mettenberger to beat them. Mississippi State knows it is going to be in trouble if the LSU ground game is working, but there is always a chance the inconsistent Mettenberger will struggle, giving the Bulldogs a fighting chance.
The Tigers Win If:
From a physical standpoint, the Tigers have a lot more muscle in the trenches than the Bulldogs. However, the possibility of a mental hangover from last weekend’s heartbreaking loss to Alabama does exist. Mettenberger in particular needs to build on his strong play from last weekend’s game, even though it ended with a loss. As long as LSU doesn’t come out flat and making mistakes, the Tigers’ running game and defense will be able to fire on all cylinders, which is bad news for Mississippi State.
Bottom Line:
After starting the year 7-0 and beating three SEC teams that have yet to win a single conference game, the Bulldogs have gotten a rude awakening the last two weeks against Alabama and Texas A&M. Mississippi State has been outscored 76-20 in its two losses, and the Bulldogs simply haven’t had enough muscle in the trenches to compete. In fact, Mississippi has allowed three of its last four opponents to score more than 30 points, and Russell has thrown just one touchdown compared to two interceptions the last two weeks after throwing 15 scores to just one pick in the first seven games. With an offensive line that is finally healthy and a nasty defensive line, LSU will exploit the same weaknesses that the Crimson Tide and Aggies took advantage of. The Tigers will keep a suspect Mississippi State offense in check and literally run over the Bulldogs’ defense on their way to a win.
Prediction: LSU Tigers (-14 ½) Cover the Spread
Mississippi St @ LSU Vegas Odds and Total
Line: LSU -14
Total: Over/Under 44
Television: 7 PM EST on ESPN
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