2012 College Football Picks: Kansas State @ West Virginia Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 10/20/2012: Saturday’s showdown between the fourth-ranked Kansas State Wildcats (6-0, 3-0 Big 12) and the 13th-ranked West Virginia Mountaineers (5-1, 2-1 Big 12) in Morgantown could have far-reaching implications. The two teams are among the favorites for the Big 12 crown, and the Wildcats are still in the mix for a potential national title. Meanwhile, West Virginia quarterback Geno Smith and Kansas State dual-threat QB Collin Klein are arguably the top two contenders for the Heisman as the season hits its midway point. Down the road, Saturday’s game could end up deciding the top spot in the conference and the top individual honor in college football.
Both teams are offensive juggernauts, although both go about moving the football in completely different ways. Kansas State uses an excellent running game that ranks 11th in the country at 248.5 yards per game. Meanwhile, West Virginia is a pass-first team, ranking third in the country at 384.8 yards per game. Both methods have been effective, and the Wildcats and Mountaineers both bring top-15 scoring offenses into Saturday’s meeting, averaging 45.7 and 40.8 points per game, respectively. While Smith and Klein are the two biggest stars in this matchup, both players have a solid supporting cast. West Virginia receivers Stedman Bailey and Tavon Austin have both surpassed 700 yards already and have combined for 22 touchdowns. Kansas State running back John Hubert has been the lightning to Klein’s thunder, scoring eight touchdowns and averaging more than six yards per carry.
While both offenses have been productive, the clear edge in defense goes to the Wildcats. Kansas State currently ranks 19th in the country in scoring defense, allowing just 16.5 points per game. Cornerback Nigel Malone and linebacker Arthur Brown lead a unit that has yet to give up more than 21 points in any game this season. The Mountaineers, on the other hand, rank 112th in scoring defense, allowing 37.3 points per game. Not to mention that West Virginia has surrendered 45 or more points in each of its last three games.
The Wildcats Win If:
Kansas State’s offensive style is a perfect weapon for slowing down West Virginia. By establishing the run, the Wildcats can put points on the board and control the tempo. If Klein and Hubert are able march the ball up and down the field on the ground, the already-shaky Mountaineers’ defense is going to wear down, and their high-powered offense is going to be stuck on the sidelines. Defensively, the Wildcats need to pressure the pocket as often as possible. They don’t need to sack Smith, but by forcing him to make quick, shorter throws, the big plays in the passing that have carried West Virginia aren’t going to be available. If Kansas State gets its running game rolling, the Wildcats can remain undefeated.
The Mountaineers Win If:
Smith and company can win this game by doing what they do best – scoring points. Kansas State doesn’t have the offense to play from behind, and if the Mountaineers can get the passing game clicking early, the Wildcats are eventually going to be forced to abandon the run. If the West Virginia offensive line gives Smith time, he has the weapons at receiver to make Kansas State pay. Meanwhile, the Mountaineers’ defense has to at least have a decent showing. The Wildcats are going to try to control the pace of the game with their rushing attack, but if the West Virginia defense gets a few early stops, Smith and the offense can turn this game into an up-tempo scoring fest. If that happens, West Virginia can outscore Kansas State and grab the win.
Bottom Line:
West Virginia got hammered last weekend by Texas Tech, and the Red Raiders derailed the Mountaineers’ offense by pressuring Smith. Kansas State owns one of the top defense in the conference, and they also have the talent to pressure the pocket and disrupt the timing between Smith and his receivers. After all, the Wildcats already went on the road and held the high-scoring Oklahoma offense to just 19 points. Meanwhile, the Wildcats’ rushing attack should find plenty of room to run against a West Virginia defense that hasn’t stopped anyone this season. Klein and the ground game will put points on the board control the pace on the offensive side of the ball, giving the Kansas State defense the rest it needs to hold Smith and company to a reasonable point total and pick up the win.
Prediction: Kansas State Wildcats (+2 ½) Cover the Spread
Kansas State @ West Virginia Vegas Odds and Total
Line: West Virginia -3
Total: Over/Under 72
Television: 7:00 PM EST on FOX
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