2012 College Football Picks: Alabama @ LSU Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 11/3/2012

2012 College Football Picks: Alabama @ LSU Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 11/3/2012: It doesn’t get much bigger than this. Last year, Alabama and LSU battled for the SEC West crown during the regular season and battled again in the BCS title game for the national championship. The two dominant programs will renew their rivalry this weekend when the top-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0, 5-0 SEC) head to “Death Valley” to face the fifth-ranked LSU Tigers (7-1, 3-1 SEC). This time around, the division title is likely on the line once again with the winner controlling its own destiny. More importantly, Alabama needs a win to keep its hopes of back-to-back titles alive while a victory or LSU would keep the Tigers in contention for a championship despite a loss earlier in the year. It is a primetime matchup between two powerhouse programs, and the defending champion Crimson Tide are 9 ½-point favorites.

Both sides bring dominant defenses into the matchup once again, but while the Tigers are ninth on the country in scoring defense at 14.6 per game, the Crimson Tide have the best scoring defense, allowing just 8.1 points per game. Alabama hasn’t allowed an opponent to score more than 14 points all year, and although LSU hasn’t let an opponent top 22 all year, the Tigers have allowed three of their last four opponents to eclipse the 20-point mark. The Crimson Tide are also the best team in the nation when it comes to turnover differential.

Offensively, there isn’t much comparison. Alabama ranks 11th in the country in scoring, averaging more than 40 points per game. Running backs T.J. Yeldon and Eddy Lacy have combined for 14 touchdowns, and both are averaging well over five yards per carry for an offense that ranks in the top 25 in rushing. Meanwhile, quarterback A.J. McCarron has been the definition of efficient, throwing 18 touchdowns and no interceptions while completing almost 69 percent of his passes. The Tigers, on the other hand, rank outside the top 50 in points per game. LSU does own a top-25 rushing offense, but the passing game has offered little balance. In his first year under center, Zach Mettenberger has thrown just seven touchdowns compared to four interceptions while completing less than 57 percent of his passes.

The Crimson Tide Win If:

Although Alabama lost last year’s regular season meeting with the Tigers 9-6 in overtime, the Crimson Tide bounced back by dominating LSU in the BCS title game. In that game, Alabama used its power running game and dominating defense along with some timely passes from McCarron to control the tempo from start to finish. The Crimson Tide can use the same recipe for success this weekend, and as long as McCarron doesn’t start making mistakes and giving the Tigers easy scores, Alabama can control the pace once again. If that happens, the Crimson Tide’s incredible offensive line and two-headed monster at running back will eventually wear down LSU’s defense and allow Nick Saban’s bunch to escape “Death Valley” undefeated.

The Tigers Win If:

Plain and simple, the LSU offense isn’t all that great. If the Tigers are going to win, they need to do exactly what they did in last year’s regular season meeting with Alabama and make this a low-scoring game. If LSU can stuff the Crimson Tide rushing attack one early downs and force McCarron out of his comfort zone, the Tigers can make Saturday’s contest a battle of field position and special teams. With a great punter in Brad Wing and a great kicker in Drew Alleman, LSU has a definite edge in a low-scoring defensive battle. If the game comes down to field goals, the Tigers can take down the Crimson Tide.

Bottom Line:

At the end of the day, both Alabama and LSU are still the same run-first, defensive-minded teams that played for a national title one year ago. While neither defense is quite as loaded as they were a year ago, LSU’s offense is definitely worse. Injuries along the offensive line, a lack of explosive players at wide receiver and inconsistent play from Mettenberger have resulted in a scoring attack that has yet to top 24 points in conference play. Meanwhile, Alabama’s offense is more balanced than ever before thanks to the efficient play of McCarron and the best offensive line in the country. Without question, Alabama is the better all-around team and should win the game. However, Les Miles will motivate his team by playing the underdog card, and Saban has a tendency to go a little conservative in big games. A 9 ½-point spread is enormous, especially when LSU is in “Death Valley” and getting that many points. The Tigers 22-game home winning streak is the longest in the nation, and while it may be snapped Saturday night, LSU will make it tough on the Crimson Tide.

Prediction: LSU Tigers (-9 ½) Cover the Spread 

Alabama @ LSU Vegas Odds and Total
Line: Alabama -9
Total: Over/Under 40
Television: 8 PM EST on CBS

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