2012 College Football Picks: Alabama @ Arkansas Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 9/15/2012: Last season, a strong argument could have been made that the three best teams in the country all resided in the SEC West. This weekend, two of the divisions powerhouses will meet when the top-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide visit Fayetteville to face the Arkansas Razorbacks. Of course, a bit of the drama was sucked out of the matchup last weekend when the Razorbacks were stunned in overtime by Louisiana-Monroe, knocking Arkansas outside of the top 10 in the national rankings. Not surprisingly, the Crimson Tide are 21 ½-point favorites in this one. However, the Razorbacks are still a dangerous team, and nothing is a given on the road in the SEC.
The two teams met last year in Tuscaloosa in a game that matched the conference’s best defense against the conference best offense. It turned out to be a total mismatch. Alabama’s defense shut down the Razorbacks’ high-powered offense, and the Crimson Tide running game powered over the Arkansas defense. Nick Saban’s bunch won 38-14, and it wasn’t even that close. Although it was one of just two losses the Razorbacks would suffer, it did make the gap between the two teams painfully clear.
Fresh off an unforgivable loss, it is tough to expect Arkansas to reverse the outcome this time around. On the plus side, the Razorbacks are the home team this weekend, starting running back Knile Davis is healthy after missing the matchup last year, and the Crimson Tide are missing several starters from the defensive unit that dominated Arkansas in 2011. That being said, Alabama’s revamped defense has already locked up Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson this season, and Davis has yet to a find a rhythm in the Arkansas offense. If the Razorbacks are better off entering this year’s matchup, it isn’t by much.
To make matters worse, Arkansas QB Tyler Wilson was hurt in last weekend’s loss and may not play against Alabama. When healthy, he is of the best QBs in the SEC. In last year’s meeting, he completed more than 60 percent of his passes and threw just one interceptions. However, the Razorbacks’ offense relies heavily on quick passes and yards after catch, and Alabama’s speed and athleticism on defense is perfectly equipped to stop the attack. Prior to the start of the year, there were some questions about the linebackers and revamped secondary for the Crimson Tide. Those questions have since been answered, and Arkansas will likely find points tough to come by even if Wilson is under center.
Another issue facing the Razorbacks will be the much-improved offense of Alabama. Quarterback A.J. McCarron is blossoming in his expanded role, and running backs Eddie Lacy and T.J. Yeldon have picked up right where Trent Richardson left off. More importantly, the offensive line of the Crimson Tide is probably the best in the country. The unit bullied and wore down Michigan’s defensive front, and the Razorbacks’ defense is likely in for a similar fate. It may not be as flashy as Arkansas’ pass-first attack, but Alabama’s power running game is deadly and effective.
In the end, the Razorbacks just have the weapons to win this fight. Arkansas doesn’t have the muscle in the trenches to handle Alabama’s punishing running game, and the Crimson Tide defense has more than enough speed and athleticism to contain the Razorbacks’ normally powerful offense. There is a slight chance that the unexpected loss last weekend will serve as extra motivation for Arkansas, but more than likely, it merely exposed flaws that Saban and company are bound to take advantage of. Look for Alabama to control the game on both sides of the ball and win comfortably.
Prediction: Alabama Crimson Tide (-21 ½) Cover the Spread
Alabama @ Arkansas Vegas Odds and Total
Line: Alabama -21
Total: Over/Under 53.5
Television: 3:30PM EST on CBS
Stop by NSAwins.com daily throughout the NCAA Football season for daily Hesiman Trophy Odds and Vegas College Football Lines plus daily updated BCS National Championship Futures Odds and 2012 College Bowl Game Odds.
| 2 EASY STEPS to BET on the 2012 College Football Odds! STEP 1: CLICK HERE to OPEN BOVADA Account STEP 2: Deposit with Credit Card or Deposit by Check and get a 20% BONUS instantly FREE. |