2012 College Football Odds and Picks: Texas @ Kansas St Predictions – Free College Football Picks 12/1/2012

2012 College Football Odds and Picks: Texas @ Kansas St Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 12/1/2012: The Big 12 championship and a spot in a BCS bowl will be on the ling Saturday night when the 18th-ranked Texas Longhorns (8-3, 5-3 Big 12) head to Manhattan to face the sixth-ranked Kansas State Wildcats (10-1, 7-1 Big 12). Surprisingly, it is the powerhouse Texas program left to play the role of spoiler against a Kansas State team that can wrap up a conference title with a victory. However, a Longhorns’ upset and a victory by Oklahoma earlier in the day would give the Big 12 title and BCS spot to the Sooners. For the Wildcats, the game is also the last chance for quarterback Collin Klein to win over Heisman voters and gain back the votes he lost when Kansas State lost in ugly fashion to Baylor two weekends ago. The season is essentially on the line for Klein and company, but playing at home, the Wildcats are 10 ½-point favorites.

Normally known for a modest offense and stingy defense, the opposite has been true for the Longhorns this season. Led by a running game that features the speedy Johnathan Gray and the powerful Joe Bergeron, Texas ranks 20th in the country in scoring, averaging more than 37 points per game. Quarterback David Ash has provided solid balance in the passing game most of the year, but a rib injury has forced Case McCoy under center. Meanwhile, the defense has been one of the worst in recent memory, allowing more than 28 points per game. Despite stars like safety Kenny Vaccaro and defensive end Alex Okafor, the Longhorns have allowed more than 30 points on five occasions this year and have allowed 48 or more points three times.

Kansas State has been the model of consistency and balance on both sides of the ball this season. Led by the dual-threat ability of Klein and the explosiveness of running back John Hubert and receiver Tyler Lockett, the Wildcats rank 12th the country in scoring, averaging more than 40 points per game. Meanwhile, linebacker Arthur Brown leads a defense that is allowing just 20.8 points per game. The unit has held 10 of its 12 opponents to 24 points or less.

The Longhorns Win If:

While the injury to Ash isn’t ideal, it really doesn’t change what Texas needs to do on offense. Bergeron and Gray are the Longhorns’ two best offensive weapons, and establishing both in the early going will be crucial. An already-suspect Texas defense is going to wear down in a hurry if Klein and company have the ball a lot, but if the Longhorns can control the clock with their ground game, they can give their defense a fighting chance. Meanwhile, McCoy has to avoid turnovers in his first start of the season and use his scrambling ability to extend plays and extend drives. If Texas falls behind and has to try to come from behind, this game is going to get ugly. If the Longhorns run the ball well all night and control the tempo, they can hang within striking distance and have a chance at pulling off the upset.

The Wildcats Win If:

While the Wildcats have a high-scoring offense, they don’t necessarily have an explosive offense. Kansas State thrives on pummeling opponents with its power running game, and that is exactly what the Wildcats have to do against Texas. Consistent, sustained drives early in the game will go a long way to wearing down a Texas defense that is mediocre to begin with. Not to mention the fact that early scores will force the Longhorns to abandon their own running game and lean on a backup quarterback. Defensively, Kansas State needs to make sure that if it is going to get beat that McCoy is the player that does it. If this game comes down to whether McCoy or Klein can put more points on the board, the Wildcats are going to run away with things.

Bottom Line:

Although Kansas State definitely isn’t playing its best football heading into this crucial matchup, neither is Texas. In fact, the Longhorns’ offense that is averaging more than 37 points per game on the year has averaged just 26.0 points in its last four games. Now, Texas is going to have a backup QB is going under center against a top-25 Kansas State defense that has already held the likes of Geno Smith, Landry Jones and Seth Doege in check. Throw in the fact that the Texas defense that has struggled with tackling all year will have to try to bring down a human bulldozer in Klein, and the matchups just don’t favor the Longhorns. Texas hasn’t been able to contain a high-scoring offense all year, and the Longhorns offense picked the wrong time to stop firing on all cylinders. Klein has been one of the best leaders in college football over the past two years, and with a Big 12 title and BCS berth on the line, he and the Wildcats will deliver.

Prediction: Kansas State Wildcats (-10 ½) Cover the Spread

Texas @ Kansas St Vegas Odds and Total
Line: Kansas St -11
Total: Over/Under 62
Television: 8 PM EST on ABC

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