2012 College Football Picks: Texas A&M @ La Tech Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 10/13/2012: While showdowns in the SEC and Big 12 may be the main events Saturday, an entertaining undercard could be in store in an out-of-conference battle between the 22nd-ranked Texas A&M Aggies (4-1, 2-1 SEC) and the 23rd-ranked Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (5-0, 0-0 WAC). The Aggies have enjoyed a solid first year in the SEC with their lone blemish coming in a three-point loss to a Florida team that has since climbed into the top five in the polls. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs have remained perfect thus far, picking up road wins against Houston, Illinois and Virginia along the way. A win for either team Saturday would go a long way to securing their spot in the top 25 for the coming weeks. Hailing from the mighty SEC, the Aggies are nine-point favorites on the road.
The game is actually a battle of two of the more productive, balanced offenses in the country. Texas A&M ranks in the top 30 in both rushing and passing yards per game, and the same goes for Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs also own the third-best scoring offense in the country at 53.2 points per game, but the Aggies aren’t far behind at 44.6 points per game. For Texas A&M, freshman quarterback Johnny Manziel has been the key. He has scored a combined 18 touchdowns this season, and in addition to his almost 1,300 passing yards, he is also the team’s leading rusher. The Aggies, on the other hand, have used stellar QB play and a two-headed monster at running back to put up their big offensive numbers. Senior Colby Cameron has thrown for 13 scores and no interceptions this year, while Tevin King and Kenneth Dixon have combined for almost 800 rushing yards and 13 scores.
Although it is tough to give an edge to either side in terms of offensive firepower, the edge on the defensive side of the ball clearly belongs to the Aggies. Texas A&M currently ranks 14th in scoring defense, allowing just 14.8 points per game. In their five games this season, the Aggies have allowed more than 20 points only once. The Bulldogs, on the other hand, rank 109th in scoring defense, allowing 35.8 points per game. In contrast to Texas A&M, Louisiana Tech has allowed four of its five opponents to score 31 or more points.
Texas A&M Wins If:
Texas A&M has been winning in the trenches most of the year, and the Aggies need to physically overpower the Bulldogs up front in this one. Manziel and company don’t need to get too tricky on offense to put up points, and if they pound away on the ground, an already struggling Lousiana Tech defense is going to completely wear down. Defensively, the Aggies need to set the tone early. They have more size and strength than the Bulldogs have dealt with all year, and as long as they don’t get into a shootout early, Texas A&M can build a lead and control the game.
Louisiana Tech Wins If:
The Bulldogs haven’t been able to slow down anyone this season, and they aren’t going to start against a top-10 offense of an SEC team. Lousiana Tech has a high-tempo offense that is built to win high-scoring games, and that is actually what the Bulldogs need to turn this game into. They need big plays and early points in the hopes that Texas A&M gets drawn into a shootout. If both teams start scoring fast, both defenses are going to get tired. If the Bulldogs create a frantic pace, they just might be able to use the crazy atmosphere to score the upset.
Bottom Line:
Louisiana Tech has notched some legitimate wins against solid competition this year, but the Aggies are in another class in terms of size, speed and strength. More importantly, Texas A&M has the far superior defense in a battle of two high-powered offenses. Even if the Bulldogs are able to match the Aggies score for score in the early going, Texas A&M is going to be able to make a stop or two along the way to put some distance between itself and Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs’ run into the top 25 ends here.
Prediction: Texas A&M Aggies (-9) Cover the Spread
Texas A&M @ La Tech Vegas Odds and Total
Line: Texas A&M -8.5
Total: Over/Under 79
Television: 9 PM EST on ESPNU
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