2012 College Football Odds and Picks: Stanford @ UCLA Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 11/24/2012: One of the strangest scenarios you will find in college football will be at work Saturday when the eighth-ranked Stanford Cardinal (9-2, 7-1 Pac-12) visit the 17th-ranked UCLA Bruins (9-2, 6-2 Pac-12). For Stanford, a win secures the Pac-12 North title and clinches the Cardinal a spot in the conference title game. However, the Bruins have already clinched the South Division. Beating Stanford this weekend would all but ensure that UCLA would have to face Oregon on the Pac-12 title game. Losing on the other hand, would set up a rematch with Stanford for the conference championship. Needless to say, the Bruins have a lot to think about as far as what matchup they prefer down the road, but in the short term, they are two-point underdogs Saturday.
Both offenses have strong running games, and two of the best running backs in the conference will be on display in this one. UCLA’s Johnathan Franklin has 10 scores and more than 1,400 yards while Stanford’s Stepfan Taylor has nine touchdowns and more than 1,200 yards. Both offenses also feature freshman quarterbacks. Stanford’s Kevin Hogan has been solid since taking over in the middle of the year, but Brett Hundley is closing in on 3,000 yards for the Bruins and has helped make them one of the more balanced scoring attacks in the country. Overall, UCLA has big edge when it comes to putting points on the board, ranking 20th in scoring compared to 70th for the Cardinal.
On the defensive side of the ball, Stanford has the clear edge. While the Bruins have been inconsistent on defense from game to game, the Cardinal have been rock solid. Linebacker Chase Thomas leads physical, disciplined unit that is allowing the 10th-fewest points in the country. If Stanford doesn’t have the best group of linebackers, I’d like to know who does.
The Cardinal Win If:
The recipe for success has been simple for Stanford. The Cardinal run the ball down the throat of opponents and play mistake-free defense for four quarters. Establishing Taylor and the power running game is the first step to executing their game plan, and if the Cardinal are able to control the clock on offense, it is only going to help their defense stay rested and ready. A well-rested defense should be able to slow down Franklin and the UCLA running game, and if the Bruins can’t run the ball, they are going to have a hard time finding a rhythm on offense. If Stanford gets Taylor rolling while slowing down Franklin, the Cardinal are going to be able to ground and pound out a win.
The Bruins Win If:
Stanford doesn’t have a great offense in terms of scoring points, but the Cardinal are able to control the pace of games as well as any team in the country. The Bruins need to change that of they want to win Saturday. Slowing down the Taylor and the Stanford ground game and putting Hogan in third and longs will go a long way to solving the issue. Getting their own offense rolling early and forcing Stanford to play from behind will put the Bruins in an even more commanding position. Points are UCLA’s best friend in this matchup, and if the Bruins can make this game into any type of an offensive shootout, they are going to be in the driver’s seat.
Bottom Line:
Although UCLA brings a potent, balanced offense into this matchup, it isn’t likely to scare Stanford. After all, the Cardinal have already held the high-powered offenses of USC and Oregon to just 14 points each. Meanwhile, Taylor and the power running game should be able to wear down a Bruins’ defense that has been up and down all year. More importantly, UCLA enters the game knowing that it really doesn’t matter whether it wins or loses. The Bruins are going to play in the Pac-12 title game regardless of the outcome Saturday, and making a BCS game depends solely on winning the conference championship. I’m not saying that UCLA will intentionally throw the game, but the simple fact that Stanford has to win to keep its BCS bowl hopes alive while UCLA can already focus on the future will make a big difference.
Prediction: Stanford Cardinal (-2) Cover the Spread
Stanford @ UCLA Vegas Odds and Total
Line: Stanford -3
Total: Over/Under 51.5
Television: 6:30 PM EST on FOX
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