2012 College Football Odds and Picks: Stanford @ Notre Dame Predictions – Free College Football Picks 10/13/2012

2012 College Football Picks: Stanford @ Notre Dame Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 10/13/2012: Wake up the echoes. Notre Dame is 5-0, and the seventh-ranked Fighting Irish have their sights set on a BCS bowl. However, a brutal schedule doesn’t get an easier as the 17th-ranked Stanford Cardinal (4-1, 2-1 Pac-12) come to South Bend Saturday afternoon. Stanford has already knocked off then-No. 2 USC and are proving that the program can remain strong even without quarterback Andrew Luck. Not to mention the fact that the Cardinal have beaten Notre Dame the last three seasons, including a 2010 victory in South Bend that snapped a seven-game road losing streak for Stanford in the series. Still, the undefeated Fighting Irish are eight-point favorites at home.

Both teams have seen a change in philosophy this season, relying on defense and power running to win games. While neither offense has been flashy on paper, the defenses have been. In fact, Notre Dame currently ranks second in the country in scoring defense, allowing just 7.8 points per game. Stanford, on the other hand, is allowing 21.8 points per game, but that number is skewed by a triple-overtime win against the spread-option offense of Rich Rodriguez and Arizona. In the Cardinal’s other four games they have allowed 17 points or less. A hard-hitting, nasty game could be on tap between two powerful defenses.

The Cardinal Win If:

Quarterback Josh Nunes has done an admirable job replacing Luck, and he will have to play mistake free football Saturday if Stanford is going to win. In a game that should be played at a methodical pace, points will be at a premium. Even one turnover could prove catastrophic if it leads to an easy score. The Cardinal defense is stout and loaded at linebacker, and if Stanford controls Notre Dame’s running game, the Fighting Irish aren’t going to be scoring a lot of points. If Nunes manages the games, makes a few throws and avoids turnovers, workhorse running back Stepfan Taylor and the Stanford defense have a chance to grind out a win in a low-scoring game.

The Fighting Irish Win If:

The winning formula has been pretty simple for the Fighting Irish this season. The Notre Dame defense has been brilliant, and the offense has avoided the turnovers that plagued it last season by relying mainly on the ground game. Against a Stanford offense that has a first-year starter at QB, linebacker Manti Te’o and the Notre Dame defense should be able to shine. If the Fighting Irish defense creates a few turnovers or even sets up the offense with a short field enough times, Notre Dame will eventually wear down a strong Stanford defense and put points on the board. Notre Dame just needs to play to its strength and control the tempo with its defense and use its defense to create offense.

Bottom Line:

Both defenses have been impressive, and while Stanford held Matt Barkley and USC in check, Notre Dame’s unit has incredible. The Fighting Irish have already shut down Michigan QB Denard Robinson, Michigan State running back LeVeon Bell and a high-flying Miami (FL) offense. The chances of Nunes and Taylor doing much damage are slim. That being said, Notre Dame’s offense isn’t exactly explosive either, and the Fighting Irish have scored 20 points or less three times this year. Against Stanford’s stingy defense, another low-scoring effort is the likely scenario. In a battle of defenses, Te’o and Notre Dame should pull out a tight one, but with eight points to work with, Stanford can hang around and cover the spread.

Prediction: Stanford Cardinal (+8) Cover the Spread

Stanford @ Notre Dame Vegas Odds and Total
Line: Notre Dame -7
Total: Over/Under 42.5
Television: 3:30 PM EST on NBC

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