2012 College Football Odds and Picks: South Carolina @ Florida Predictions – Free College Football Picks 10/20/2012

2012 College Football Picks: South Carolina @ Florida Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 10/20/2012: It’s only mid-October, but Saturday’s meeting between South Carolina (6-1, 4-1 SEC) and Florida (6-0, 5-0 SEC) in Gainesville has huge implications. The winner will control its own destiny in the SEC East and have an inside track on reaching the conference title game. Not to mention that both the second-ranked Gators and seventh-ranked Gamecocks could both end up playing in the national title game if they win out. Throw in the added element of South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier returning to Gainesville, and this is definitely one of the biggest games of the year. Playing at home, the undefeated Gators are 3 ½-point favorites.

Both teams are very similar in terms of both strengths and styles of play. On offense, both sides like to run the ball and can do so in multiple ways. Florida’s workhorse running back is Mike Gillislee, and quarterback Jeff Driskel also makes plays with his legs. South Carolina has a similar dynamic with Marcus Lattimore serving as the primary back and QB Connor Shaw creating outside of the pocket with his scrambling ability. Meanwhile, both teams have stingy defenses powered by two of the better defensive lines in the country. In fact, the Gamecocks and Gators rank fifth and sixth in terms of fewest points allowed, respectively. A grinding, low-scoring game could be on tap.

The Gamecocks Win If:

It is still unclear whether or not Lattimore will play Saturday, but even if he does, Shaw is going to need to make a few big plays in order for the Gamecocks to put some points on the board. South Carolina has the more balanced offense, and the Gamecocks need to avoid playing at Florida’s pace. A few early scores by the Gamecocks’ offense will also go a long way to helping the defense. While Gillislee and the Florida rushing attack have been able to carry the load thus far, the Gators are a terrible passing offense that ranks 118th in the country. If South Carolina can shut down the Gators’ ground game and take a lead into the fourth quarter, the Gamecock can force Driskel to become a passer. When that happens, South Carolina’s pass rush will take care of the rest against a QB that is well below average inside the pocket.

The Gators Win If:

Florida’s recipe for success has involved shutting down opposing offenses and wearing down opposing defenses with its power running game. The Gators aren’t afraid to play in close games and are used to waiting until the fourth quarter to make their move. If Florida follows a similar game plan against South Carolina, they should be in good shape. By sticking with the running game, the Gators can neutralize the Gamecocks’ pass rush, which is the strength of the South Carolina defense. Meanwhile, the Florida defensive line just needs to shut down the Gamecocks’ ground game the way it has shut down every other offense it has faced this season. By winning in the trenches and controlling the pace, the Gators can grind out another win.

Bottom Line:

While South Carolina’s defense is legit, the Gamecocks did wear down in their loss to LSU after the offense struggled to sustain drives for most of the game. Florida figures to make life equally difficult for the South Carolina offense, especially considering the Gators’ defense already kept Texas A&M dual-threat QB Johnny Manziel in check. Meanwhile, Gillislee and the Florida running game were able to wear down LSU’s stacked defensive front, and they should be able to do the same to South Carolina’s defensive line. It will tight until the end, but the Gators will outlast the Gamecocks in a defensive battle.

Prediction: Florida Gators (-3 ½) Cover the Spread 

South Carolina @ Florida Vegas Odds and Total
Line: Florida -3.5
Total: Over/Under 41
Television: 3:30 PM EST on CBS

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