2012 College Football Odds and Picks: Oregon St @ Stanford Predictions – Free College Football Picks 11/10/2012

2012 College Football Picks: Oregon St @ Stanford Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 11/10/2012: A big matchup in the Pac-12 North highlights this weekend’s slate of college football games as the 11th-ranked Oregon State Beavers (7-1, 5-1 Pac-12) head to Palo Alto to face the 14th-ranked Stanford Cardinal (7-2, 5-1 Pac-12). Both teams need a win to stay within striking distance of the undefeated Oregon Ducks for the division crown, and since both teams still have a meeting with Oregon, the winner of Saturday’s game will control its own destiny in the Pac-12. However, a loss for either side would essentially kill any conference title hopes. Playing at home, the Cardinal are 4 ½-point favorites.

The two teams are polar opposites when it comes to their offensive philosophy. Oregon State is a pass-first team, and the Beavers currently rank 21st in the country in passing. Quarterback Cody Vaz has played well since an injury forced him into the starting role, and receivers Markus Wheaton and Brandin Cooks have combined for more than 1,600 yards this year. Meanwhile, Stanford’s offense revolves around its power running game. Senior running back Stepfan Taylor is the workhorse, and he enters Saturday game with 947 yards and eight scores. While the approaches are different, neither offense lights up the scoreboard. Both teams are averaging less than 30 points per game.

On the defensive side of the ball, both sides have been stout all year. The Beavers and Cardinal rank 19th and 12th in scoring defense, respectively, and both are allowing less than 19 points per game. Led by Chase Thomas, Stanford’s linebackers are arguably the best in the country. Meanwhile, Oregon State has a stout defensive line led by sack specialist Scott Crichton and a solid secondary led by senior corner Jordan Poyer.

The Beavers Win If:

Oregon State has been stuffing the run all year, and if the Beavers’ defensive front steps up again this weekend, they are going to be in great shape. Stanford has held its own without Andrew Luck under center, but the Cardinal are definitely reliant on the run these days. If Oregon State keeps Taylor in check, an already mediocre Stanford offense is going to struggle to put points on the board. Meanwhile, Vaz and the passing game need to stretch the field and attack the Stanford secondary. The Cardinal linebackers are elite, but the Beavers can take them out of the game by picking on the Stanford cornerbacks. If Wheaton and Cooks win their one-on-one matchups down the field, Oregon State should put up enough points to win the game.

The Cardinal Win If:

The Beavers aren’t a great running team, and the Cardinal know going into the game Oregon State is going to be throwing early and often. If Stanford’s linebackers can pressure Vaz and eliminate any big plays in the passing game, Oregon State is going to have issues getting into the end zone. On the offensive end, Taylor and Stanford’s physical offensive line need to wear down the Beavers’ defense. If the Cardinal make this a battle in the trenches, their size and muscle on both sides of the ball will win out.

Bottom Line:

At the end of the day, this is an excellent matchup for the Beavers. The stingy Oregon State defensive front is allowing just 91.8 rushing yards per game, and the Stanford offense struggles when its power running game isn’t going. Meanwhile, the Beavers’ passing attack has the weapons to avoid the strength of Stanford’s defense. The Cardinal linebackers can swarm running backs and cover receivers over the middle, but they aren’t going to be covering Cooks and Wheaton deep down the field. Oregon State’s ability to stretch the field on offense and stuff the run on defense will allow them to pick up a big road win.

Prediction: Oregon State Beavers (+4 ½) Cover the Spread

Oregon St @ Stanford Vegas Odds and Total
Line: Stanford -4.5
Total: Over/Under 45
Television: 3 PM EST on FOX

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