2012 College Football Odds and Picks: Oregon @ Oregon State Predictions – Free College Football Picks 11/24/2012

2012 College Football Odds and Picks: Oregon @ Oregon State Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 11/24/2012: One of the underrated rivalries in college football will be renew this weekend when the fifth-ranked Oregon Ducks (10-1, 7-1 Pac-12) go on the road to face the 15th-ranked Oregon State Beavers (8-2, 6-2 Pac-12) in a game known by many as the Civil War. Bragging rights alone tends to bring out the best from both sides in this game, but there are much bigger things at stake this weekend, as well. With a win, the Ducks likely clinch an at-large spot in a BCS game. With a win and a Stanford loss, the Ducks clinch the Pac-12 North and will play in the conference title game for a chance at an automatic bid to a BCS bowl. Meanwhile, the Beavers are sure to be eager to dash the hopes of their rivals, but despite playing at home, Oregon State is a 10-point underdog.

The two teams differ greatly on offensive philosophy. Oregon uses a spread-option rushing attack that relies on speed and simplicity. Quarterback Marcus Mariota and running backs Kenjon Barner and De’Anthony Thomas are the main cogs for a unit that ranks fifth in the country in rushing and second in scoring. Meanwhile, the Beavers use more of a pass-heavy system. Starting QB Sean Mannion is back under center for a top-25 passing attack after missing time with injuries, and he has two excellent targets to work with. Receiver Brandin Cooks has already gone over 1,000 yards, and Markus Wheaton is less than 30 yards away from joining him. Running back Storm Woods provides some balance to the offense, but Mannion and his receivers are the main components.

Defensively, the two sides have different approaches, as well. Oregon is a bit undersized in the trenches, but the speed of the Ducks’ defense leads to plenty of sacks and turnovers. Oregon State has been less opportunistic, but the Beavers have plenty of muscle along the defensive line and have been rock solid and stingy all year, allowing less than 19 points per game to opponents. Heading into Saturday’s matchup, it is also worth noting that Oregon’s defense is dealing with some injuries both up front and in the secondary.

The Ducks Win If:

Oregon’s high-powered offense was out of sync in last weekend’s loss to Stanford, and the Ducks need to get back on track by getting their ground game going. Mariota has had a great season for a freshman, but the Ducks are still going to live and die with their big plays in the running game. If Barner, Thomas and the rest of Oregon’s weapons make the Beavers play at their up-tempo pace, the Ducks will pile up plenty of points. Meanwhile, the defense needs to make Mannion and the Oregon State passing attack pay if the Beavers try to push the ball down the field. Oregon has been one of the best teams in the country at forcing turnovers, and if the Ducks get a few takeaways in this one, the offense should do the rest.

The Beavers Win If:

It has to be tempting to try to outscore a high-flying team like Oregon, but the country saw how far that got USC. If Oregon State is going to knock off the Ducks, the Beavers need to win up front. Limiting Oregon’s big runs will be crucial for Oregon State defense, and keeping missed tackles to a minimum is a must. Offensively, the Beavers need to pick their spots in the passing game. Controlling the clock and the pace should be the top priority, and turnovers will be a death sentence. If this game comes down to which team can move the ball down the field more consistently rather than about which team can deliver more big plays, the Beavers can knock off their rival.

Bottom Line:

Although Stanford gave teams a blueprint for slowing down Oregon’s spread-option attack, few teams have a linebacking corps and power running game like the Cardinal. That being said, Oregon State has been pretty darn physical in the trenches. The Beavers’ two losses this year have both come on the road by a combined seven points, and they held the power running game of Wisconsinin check and held their own in a four-point loss to Stanford. Yes, the Ducks’ ground game is built around speed rather than power, but muscle in the trenches is the key to stopping any running game, and Oregon State has plenty. I’m not sure the Beavers have what it takes to upset the Ducks, but I do know I’ll take a home team that hasn’t had a bad loss all year getting 10 points in a rivalry game.

Prediction: Oregon State Beavers (+10) Cover the Spread 

Oregon @ Oregon State Vegas Odds and Total
Line: Oregon -9.5
Total: Over/Under 65.5
Television: 3:00 PM EST

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