2012 College Football Odds and Picks: Notre Dame @ USC Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 11/24/2012: Not even the train wreck of a season that USC (7-4, 5-4 Pac-12) has endured can take away from the importance and hype surrounding the Trojans’ meeting with rival Notre Dame Saturday night. The Fighting Irish (11-0) enter the game as the top-ranked team in the country, and they are four quarters away from clinching a spot in the BCS title game. Meanwhile, USC can salvage their incredibly disappointing season by knocking off their undefeated rival. If the Trojans are going to end Notre Dame’s perfect season, they are going to have to do it without star quarterback Matt Barkley, who was injured last weekend. Freshman Max Wittek will make his first career start in place of Barkley, and he and the Trojans are five-point underdogs at home.
The two teams are polar opposites when it comes to offensive philosophy. USC has a high-scoring, pass-happy offense centered around dynamic receivers Marqise Lee and Robert Woods. The Trojans also have two solid running backs Silas Redd and Curtis McNeal, but it is a definite question mark as to whether USC’s offense will resemble the unit that is averaging more than 36 points a game without Barkley. Notre Dame on the other hand relies on its power running game. Power back Theo Riddick and the more explosive Cierre Wood form a two-headed monster in the backfield while quarterback Everett Golson is an excellent scrambler. The Fighting Irish have been improving on offense throughout the year and are now averaging more than 200 yards per game on the ground.
On the defensive side of the ball, the teams are on the opposite end of the spectrum, as well. Led by star linebacker Manti Te’o, Notre Dame has the top scoring defense in the country, allowing just 10.1 points per game. The Fighting Irish have allowed just one opponent to top 17 points all year, and the only time when an opponent topped the 20-point mark, the game went to triple overtime. USC on the other hand ranks outside the top 40 in points allowed. The Trojans have been plagued by missed tackles, penalties and blown coverages all year. The USC defense has also been heading in the wrong direction, allowing three of its last four opponents to score at least 38 points.
The Fighting Irish Win If:
The biggest hurdle for the Fighting Irish this weekend will likely be their own mindset. All year, Notre Dame has been fighting an uphill battle. The Irish were often an underdog, and until last weekend, they were likely going to miss out on the BCS title game no matter what their record ended up being. Now, they are suddenly in the driver’s seat and in control of their own destiny and are facing a struggling team that is missing their QB. As long as they don’t get overconfident and play with the same discipline and urgency that allowed them to win their first 11 games, the Fighting Irish are going to be fine. If Notre Dame pounds the ball on the ground on offense and plays it typically stingy defense, the Irish are going to punch their ticket to the title game.
The Trojans Win If:
The season has been a disaster for USC, but the Trojans can soften the disappointment by knocking of the Irish. However, pulling it off will require USC to cut down on the penalties and turnovers that have plagued them all year. Wittek in particular needs to let his explosive weapons to the work rather than try to carve up the stout Irish defense by himself. On defense, the Trojans have to tackle. Missed tackles are going to allow Notre Dame to extend drives, control the clock and keep their defense fresh. If USC can make this game into a wild shootout and force Notre Dame to throw the ball, the Trojans’ offensive firepower could deliver them a win.
Bottom Line:
Although it’s possible that the chance to ruin the national title hopes of their rival would bring out the best in the Trojans, don’t hold your breath. USC has lost every important game it has played this year, losing to Stanford and Oregon and giving away the South Division with a loss to a UCLA team that they beat 50-0 last year. Despite all their talent, the Trojans haven’t been able to get out of their own way all season, and the fact that they are missing their starting QB is just insult to injury. Meanwhile, the Fighting Irish roll into Los Angeles having survived any and all challenges, and they bring a constantly improving offense and an elite defense that has already tamed the high-powered passing attack of Oklahoma in Norman earlier this year. Notre Dame is going to roll into the national title game, and the Trojans aren’t even going to mount a worthwhile fight.
Prediction: Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-5) Cover the Spread
Notre Dame @ USC Vegas Odds and Total
Line: Notre Dame -5
Total: Over/Under 51.5
Television: 8 PM EST on ABC
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