2012 College Football Odds and Picks: LSU @ Texas A&M Predictions – Free College Football Picks 10/20/2012

2012 College Football Picks: LSU @ Texas A&M Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 10/20/2012:A huge showdown in the SEC West is on tap this weekend when the sixth-ranked LSU Tigers (6-1, 2-1 SEC) go on the road to face the 18th-ranked Texas A&M Aggies (5-1, 2-1 SEC). Both sides are still in the mix for a conference title, but with a loss to the Florida Gators already under both teams’ belt, a second loss will all but end those hopes. For the Tigers, another loss would also end their national title hopes. There is plenty on the line for both teams, and despite going on the road, LSU is a four-point favorite.

The game figures to be a battle of styles as the stout defense of the Tigers tries to slow down the high-powered offense of the Aggies. Entering the matchup, LSU has the eighth-best scoring defense in the country, allowing just 14.0 points per game. Meanwhile, Texas A&M has the fifth-best scoring offense in the country, averaging 47.0 points per game. The Aggies also rank in the top 20 in both rushing and passing yards per game. Needless to say, Texas A&M will be looking to turn this game into a shootout, while LSU will try to make it a low-scoring affair.

For Texas A&M, the player to watch is freshman quarterback Johnny Manziel. The dual-threat weapon has been nothing short of incredible, throwing for 1,680 yards and 14 scores to go along with 676 rushing yards and 10 more scores. If he lights up the LSU defense this weekend, Manziel will force himself into the Heisman conversation. Of course, the Tigers have plenty of star power of their own led by defensive ends Sam Montgomery and Barkevious Mingo and safety Eric Reid.

LSU Wins If:

Although injuries to their offensive line have caused some issues, the Tigers still have one of the better power running games in the country. With the Aggies looking to score early and often, LSU can kill two birds with one stone by establishing the run. A strong rushing attack will allow the Tigers to control the pace of the game, keep Manziel on the sideline and wear down the Texas A&M defense. Meanwhile, LSU’s defense has to use its speed to keep Manziel from making big plays outside of the pocket. Les Miles’ bunch isn’t going to win a shootout with the Aggies, but if the Tigers make this a war in the trenches, their defense and running game can deliver a win in a lower-scoring game.

Texas A&M Wins If:

While Manziel and the offense get a lot of the attention, the Texas A&M defense could be the most important weapon for the Aggies this weekend. Texas A&M cannot let the Tigers methodically run the ball down the field and chew up clock. The Aggies need to keep the LSU defense on the field, and the only way to do that is to keep the Tigers’ offense off the field. Manziel isn’t going to score a touchdown on every possession, but his chances of speeding up the game and creating some big plays increases the more times he touches the ball. If Texas A&M can control LSU’s ground game, Manziel and the offense will have enough chances to hit the big plays the Aggies need to win.

Bottom Line:

Texas A&M has made a solid transition to the SEC, but the Aggies’ lone loss to Florida doesn’t bode well for their chances against LSU. The Gators have a dominant defensive line kept Manziel, and they pounded the Texas A&M defense with the run until the Aggies wore down. The end result was a 20-17 win for the Gators. The Tigers follow an identical blueprint for success, and they have every bit the talent that Florida has. Not to mention that the LSU defense just knocked South Carolina out of the top five by limiting the big plays of the Gamecocks’ QB Connor Shaw, while the Texas A&M defense just allowed 57 points to Louisiana Tech. The Tigers’ defense is going to make life miserable for Manziel, and the LSU will run its way to a win over the Aggies.

Prediction: LSU Tigers (-3 ½) Cover the Spread 

LSU @ Texas A&M Vegas Odds and Total
Line: LSU -3.5
Total: Over/Under 52.5
Television: 12 PM EST on

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