2012 College Football Odds and Picks: Florida @ Florida State Predictions – Free College Football Picks 11/24/2012

2012 College Football Odds and Picks: Florida @ Florida State Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free College Football Picks 11/24/2012: After several down years, this weekend’s meeting between Florida and Florida State finally has some luster to it. The fourth-ranked Gators (10-1 7-1 SEC) head to Tallahassee with an outside shot at reaching the BCS title game and are basically a lock to earn an at-large bid to a BCS bowl with a win. Meanwhile, the Seminoles will look to add another big win their resume before heading into the ACC title game with a chance to earn an automatic BCS bid of their own. Playing at home, Florida State is an eight-point favorite.

Both teams bring excellent defenses into the matchup. The Seminoles currently rank fifth in the country in scoring defense, allowing just 13.1 points per game. The unit features two experienced corners along with one of the pas rushes in the college football. The Gators on the other hand rank third in the country in scoring defense, allowing just 11.7 points per game. In fact, Florida hasn’t allowed an opponent to top 20 points all year. The Gators unit is as nasty as they come in the trenches, and there are hard hitters at every level of the defense waiting to deliver punishing blows.

Offensively, the two sides aren’t quite as similar. Florida State has one of the more balanced attacks in the country, and it is working to the tune of the seventh-most points per game at 42.9. Senior quarterback E.J. Manuel is an experienced leader and efficient passer, and he leads an offense that also features explosive running backs Chris Thompson and Devonta Freeman. Meanwhile, the Gators offense has been anemic, managing less than 26 points per game. Running back Mike Gillislee is the workhorse of Florida’s power running game, and quarterback Jeff Driskel is a nice counterpunch with his scrambling ability. However, Driskel offers little in the way of help in the passing game, and the Gators currently rank 118th in the country in passing.

The Gators Win If:

It is no secret that the Gators struggle to score points. If they are going to go into Tallahassee and upset Florida State, this game has to become a defensive battle. Florida has to limit the big plays from the Seminoles’ offense, particularly in the running game. Meanwhile, the Gators’ own offense has to be mistake free. Turnovers, especially any leading to points for FSU, will be back breakers. Establishing enough of a running game to at least allow their defense to rest will also go a long way to helping the Gators. The Seminoles don’t exactly have a rich history of pulling out close games on big stages, and if the Gators’ defense can keep the score low, Florida can spring the upset.

The Seminoles Win If:

Florida can’t score against bad defenses, and there is no reason they should be able to do much damage to a stout FSU unit. However, the Seminoles can’t get overconfident and gamble for turnovers and big hits. If the defense just sticks to its normal game plan, the Gators don’t have enough weapons to put a lot of points on the board. From there, Manuel and the Florida State offense have to take advantage of their balance. The Seminoles aren’t going to be able to line up and run against Florida, but they can’t throw the ball every down either. As long as they maintain a balanced approach on offense and keep the Gators guessing, the Seminoles should be able to put enough points on the board to win.

Bottom Line:

There is no doubt that Florida State is the more balanced team and that the Seminoles have more firepower on the offensive side of the ball. However, the Gators defense is the real deal. Even in their lone loss of the year to a Georgia team with an excellent offense in its own right, the Gators held the Bulldogs to just 17 points. Florida is as tough in the trenches on both sides of the ball as any team in the country, and with plenty of victories in the SEC under their belt, Florida State’s speed isn’t going to intimidate the Gators. In the end, Florida probably doesn’t have enough weapons on offense to pull out a win, but this game has all the makings of tight, low-scoring contest. Take the Gators and eight points on the road.

Prediction: Florida Gators (+8) Cover the Spread 

Florida @ Florida State Vegas Odds and Total
Line: Florida St -7
Total: Over/Under 44
Television: 3:30 PM EST on ABC

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