Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl Odds and Picks: TCU vs Michigan St Predictions – Free College Bowl Picks 12/29/12: It was a rough year for both the TCU Horned Frogs (7-5, 5-4 Big 12) and the Michigan State Spartans (6-6, 3-5 Big Ten), but when the two sides meet in Saturday’s Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl, one team will have a chance to end its season on a high note. For TCU, the program’s first season in the Big 12 was made tougher by the loss of its starting QB Casey Pachall and starting running backs Wayman James and Ed Wesley. Meanwhile, high expectations for Michigan State went unachieved as the team struggled to replace the leadership and production provided by three-year starter Kirk Cousins at the quarterback spot. With both teams finishing the year by losing four of their final six games, a win Saturday is all the more important to build a little momentum into the offseason. TCU enters the game as a 2 ½-point favorite.
No one area in particular stands out for the Horned Frogs, but while they aren’t great at anything specific, they are pretty darn solid across the board. Offensively, TCU ranks 55th in passing, 65th in rushing and 61st in scoring at 29.3 points per game. Those numbers are even more impressive considering the team was forced to turn to backup QB Trevone Boykin early in the year along with third-string running back B.J. Catalon. Meanwhile, the usually stout TCU defense remained solid in the programs first year in the Big 12, ranking 34th in the country in points allowed at 23.1 per game.
For Michigan State, an elite, talented defense has been forced to carry an embarrassing offense all season. The Spartans rank 109th in scoring this year and are managing just 20.3 points per game. Meanwhile, the Michigan State is defense ranks in the top 10 in points allowed and is giving up just 16.3 points per game to opponents. When the offense does score, it is usually workhorse back Le’Veon Bell doing the damage. He enters Saturday’s game ranked seventh in the country with more than 1,600 yards. However, he has gotten little support from QB Andrew Maxwell. The first-year starter has just 13 touchdowns compared to nine interceptions and is completing less than 53 percent of his passes.
The Horned Frogs Win If:
Having multiple backups that are playing key positions on offense isn’t ideal, but fortunately for the Horned Frogs, they shouldn’t have to put up a ton of points to win the game. What Boykin and company do have to avoid is turnovers of any kind. If they set up the Spartans with easy scoring chances because of their own mistakes, they are going to be in trouble. On the flip side, the Horned Frogs can tip the scales if their defense and slow down Bell and force the inexperienced Maxwell into making mistakes. At the end of the day, TCU can win by taking care of the ball on offense and making sure Maxwell is the Michigan State player that has to beat them.
The Spartans Win If:
The Spartans basically have to main weapons in this fight, and they will need to establish at least one of them in order to win. The simplest solution will be to get Bell and the ground game rolling early and simply wearing down and running over the TCU defense with a conservative, run-heavy game plan that protects Maxwell. If the Horned Frogs are keeping Bell in check, the other option is for the Michigan State defense to create havoc for a TCU offense that has a freshman under center. If the Spartans generate turnovers and consistently set their offense up with good field position, they can eventually put some points on the board and win a low-scoring game.
The Bottom Line:
At the end of the day, it is hard to imagine this game being anything but low scoring given the offenses and defenses each team brings to the table. However, the TCU defense is probably the most underrated unit in this matchup. Yes, the Michigan State defense was stingy, but the Spartans played eight of their games against opponents from a Big Ten conference that had a down year by anyone’s standards. Not to mention the fact that the unit surrendered a season-high 28 points to Nebraska – a former Big 12 team with a QB that has the ability to scramble much like TCU’s Boykin. Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs held the high-powered offenses of Baylor, Texas, Kansas State and Oklahoma to 24 points or less. If TCU can keep those offenses in check, the Horned Frogs should make life very difficult on the abysmal Michigan State offense. The game will be ugly and low scoring, but the TCU defense will get the better of the Spartans’ highly-touted unit.
Prediction: TCU Horned Frogs (-2 ½) Cover the Spread
TCU vs Michigan St Vegas Odds and Total
Date: 12/29/12
Line: TCU -2.5
Total: Over/Under 41
Television: 10:15 PM EST on ESPN
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