2012 College Football Bowl Picks: San Jose St vs Bowling Green Odds and Predictions – Free Military Bowl Picks

2012 Military Bowl Odds and Picks: San Jose St vs Bowling Green Predictions – Free College Bowl Picks 12/27/12: The WAC and the MAC will take center stage when the 24th-ranked San Jose State Spartans (10-2, 5-1 WAC) take on the Bowling Green Falcons in the Military Bowl Thursday. While neither side got a piece of its conference championship during the regular season, both bring plenty of momentum into the bowl game. The Falcons won seven of their final eight games after a rough start while the Spartans bring a six-game winning streak into Thursday’s meeting. With both teams peaking at the right time, an entertaining game could be on tap. That being said, the Spartans are 7 ½-point favorites in this matchup.

A powerful passing attack and rock solid defense have carried the Spartans all season. Quarterback David Fales is closing in on 4,000 yards for the country’s 11th-ranked passing attack, and on the year, he has thrown for 31 touchdowns and just 11 interceptions. Noel Grigsby is his top target, and as a team, the Spartans ranked 28th in the country in scoring at more than 35 points per game. San Jose State also has a scoring defense ranked in the top 25. The Spartans are allowing just 21.4 points per game to opponents and have held seven teams to 20 points or less.

For Bowling Green, a modest offense has been backed by a defensive unit that has been dominant at times. Quarterback Matt Schilz has 14 touchdowns and starting back Anthon Samuel is closing in on 1,000 yards, but the Falcons ranked outside the top 80 in passing and outside the top 60 in rushing. More importantly, they rank 93rd in scoring at just 23.2 points per game. On the flip side, Bowling Green ranks eighth in the country in scoring defense, allowing opponents a mere 15.8 points per game. During the season, the Falcons held eight opponents to 13 points or less.

The Spartans Win If:

While both sides bring solid defenses into the game, San Jose State has a big edge on the offensive side of the ball, and if they exploit it, they can come away with the win. Bowling Green isn’t going to win an offensive shootout, and if Fales and company start putting points on the board early, it is going to force the Falcons to completely change their game plan. Yes, the Spartans have a reliable defense to fall back on, but a defensive battle plays into the hands of Bowling Green. If the Spartans’ offense gets rolling and rolling and can crack or approach the 30-point mark, the Falcons just don’t have the offensive firepower to keep pace.

The Falcons Win If:

Bowling Green has been winning with its defense all year, and the Falcons can’t change the formula now if they want to come out on top in the Military Bowl. If the Bowling Green defense can take the air out of the San Jose State passing game, the Falcons’ offense can play a conservative style that limits turnovers and focuses on field position. On the flip side, the Falcons are going to be in trouble if they have to put a ton of points on the board to keep up with the Spartans. At the end of the day, Bowling Green has to make sure its defense has a chance to win the game. If the game is a low-scoring affair that is decided by which defense can get the most stops, the Falcons will be in business.

Bottom Line:

Although Bowling Green’s defensive numbers are impressive, it is tough to argue what the unit did against the Falcons’ toughest competition. Bowling Green allowed at least 27 points in losses to Florida, Toledo, Virginia Tech and Kent State and lost every game that it allowed more than 13 points. Given the strength of Fales and the Spartans passing attack, the Falcons are going to have a tough time keeping San Jose State from scoring less than 13 points. Not to mention the fact that the Spartans picked up solid wins against San Diego State, BYU and Louisiana Tech during the year and lost by just three points on the road to Pac-12 champion Stanford. In other words, the Falcons’ defense was exposed against all of its toughest opponents while the Spartans are already battle tested in big games. At the end of the day, Bowling Green’s defense won’t be able to do enough to make up for a lackluster offense against the passing attack of San Jose State.

Prediction: San Jose State Spartans (-7 ½) Cover the Spread

San Jose St vs Bowling Green Vegas Odds and Total
Date: 12/27/12
Line: San Jose St -7.5
Total: Over/Under 45
Television: 3 PM EST on ESPN

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