2012 College Football Bowl Picks: Ohio vs UL Monroe Odds and Predictions – Free Independence Bowl Picks

2012 Independence Bowl Odds and Picks: Ohio vs UL Monroe Predictions – Free College Bowl Picks 12/28/12: A pair of teams looking to rebound after some late season losses will highlight the AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl Friday when the Ohio Bobcats (8-4, 4-4 MAC) take on the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (8-4, 6-2 Sun Belt). The Bobcats opened the year with seven straight wins before losing four of their final games while the Warhawks went 2-2 down the stretch with losses to the two teams that would eventually finish ahead of them in the conference. Despite the closing the year on down notes, one side has a chance to salvage the year with a bow game victory. Louisiana-Monroe enters the matchup as a seven-point favorite.

For Ohio, and inconsistent passing game led to a scoring attack that was equally unreliable, ranking outside the top 50 at 30.6 points per game. Quarterback Tyler Tettleton struggled to make big plays while breaking in new receivers, but he did manage 16 touchdowns compared to just 3 interceptions. As a result of the lack of firepower at the receiver position, the running game has taken center stage for the Bobcats. Beau Blankenship has hit 1,500 yards already, and Ohio has a top 30 rushing offense. Defensively, the Bobcats have been average. They rank outside the top 50 nationally in points allowed, giving up almost 26 per game to opponents.

Quarterback Kolton Browning has been the focal point of a Warhawks’ offense that ranks 27th in the country in passing and 25th in the scoring. Browning has thrown for 27 scores and almost 2,800 yards on the year, and he has added seven scores on the ground and leads a modest rushing attack with just over 400 yards. Brent Leonard and Je’Ron Hamm provide Browning with two solid options in the passing game, and the duo enters Friday’s game with more than 1,800 yards combined. On the defensive side of the ball, the Warhawks haven’t been anything special, allowing almost 28 points per game.

The Bobcats Win If:

With the Bobcats’ offense lacking in the firepower department, establishing a ground game and controlling the tempo will be crucial. Tettleton is a solid player, but he doesn’t have the weapons to win a high-scoring shootout against the passing attack of Louisiana-Monroe. However, Ohio can neutralize Browning to a degree by keeping him on the sidelines with heavy doses of Blankenship. If Tettleton has to throw the ball early and often to try to keep up with the Warhawks, the Bobcats are going to be in trouble. If the Bobcats offense dictates the pace of the game and keeps the game close, Tettleton can make enough plays to put points to give Ohio the win.

The Warhawks Win If:

Armed with a powerful passing attack, the Warhawks need to push the envelope with their offense early and often. Browning and company are definitely the best unit in this matchup on either side of the ball, and they need to play like it. If Louisiana-Monroe is able to put points on the board early, it is going to tip the scales dramatically in its favor. Ohio doesn’t have the weapons to outgun Browning in a high-scoring shootout. Ohio also doesn’t have an offense built to play from behind. By getting their offense rolling early, the Warhawks can control the game.

The Bottom Line:

Throughout the year, Louisiana-Monroe has shown it can put points on the board against anyone. The Warhawks opened the year with an overtime win over Arkansas and followed it up with an overtime loss to Auburn by three and a five-point loss to Baylor. In all three game, Louisiana-Monroe scored at least 28 points. The problem for the Warhawks allowed more than 30 points in all three games thanks to a defense that was suspect at best. While the Ohio offense certainly isn’t great, it isn’t completely punchless either. With a proven playmaker like Tettleton running the show with the ability to make plays with his arm and his legs, the Bobcats should be able to get some points on the board and get their ground game rolling. Browning and the Warhawks may ultimately come out on top, but seven points is a lot to cover for a team without much of a defense to fall back on.

Prediction: Ohio Bobcats (+7) Cover the Spread 

Ohio vs UL Monroe Vegas Odds and Total
Date: 12/28/12
Line: UL Monroe -7
Total: Over/Under 59.5
Television: 2 PM EST on ESPN

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