2012 College Football Bowl Picks: NC State vs Vanderbilt Odds and Predictions – Music City Bowl Picks 12/31/2012

Music City Bowl Odds and Picks: NC State vs Vanderbilt Predictions – Free College Bowl Picks 12/31/12: A high-powered passing offense will meet a stout defense when the North Carolina State Wolfpack (7-5, 4-4 ACC) meet the Vanderbilt Commodores (8-4, 5-3 SEC) in the Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl Monday. Thanks to three losses in their final five games, the Wolfpack were an afterthought in the ACC title race. Vanderbilt on the other hand closed the regular season with six straight wins, trailing only six teams ranked in the top 10 nationally in the final SEC standings. A bowl win and conference bragging rights are on the line in this one, and the red hot Commodores enter the matchup as seven-point favorites.

For North Carolina State, inconsistency on both sides of the ball led to average season. Quarterback Mike Glennon has actually enjoyed a strong year, throwing for 30 touchdowns and more than 3,600 yards for the country’s 20th-ranked passing attack. However, the Wolfpack rank just 71st in points per game thanks in large part to the complete lack of a running game to keep defenses honest. Meanwhile, the defense ranks a respectable 44th nationally in points allowed at less than 25 per game, but for every strong performance throughout the year, there has been an equally unimpressive showing to counteract it and cost the Wolfpack a win. All told, the mediocre year led to a coaching change with former Northern Illinois coach Dave Doeren set to take over next season.

Vanderbilt’s offense isn’t exactly a juggernaut, but the Commodores do have decent balance thanks to the experience of senior quarterback Jordan Rodgers and the power ground game of 1,000-yard rusher Zac Stacy. Overall, the Commodores are in the middle of the pack nationally, scoring 29.3 points per game. Meanwhile, the Commodores’ defense has been one of the stingiest groups in the country. Vanderbilt currently ranks 14th in the country in scoring defense at 18.3 points per game and has held seven opponents this season to 18 points or less.

The Wolfpack Win If:

If North Carolina State is going to win this game, Glennon and the passing attack have to have a strong performance. The Wolfpack just don’t have a reliable running game to fall back on, and if they aren’t moving the ball through the air, they aren’t going to be able to manage many points against a stout Vanderbilt defense. On the other side of the ball, the North Carolina State defense has to be able to shut down Stacy and the Commodores’ ground game. Vanderbilt loves to pound the ball to control the clock and field position and to keep its defense rested and ready. If the Wolfpack can prevent that from happening and turn this game into a battle of quarterbacks, Glennon has the arm to deliver a win for North Carolina State.

The Commodores Win If:

Vanderbilt’s defense is the team’s biggest strength, and the Commodores cater their offensive philosophy to helping the defense. If Vanderbilt is able to control the pace of the game with Stacy and the running game, Glennon is going to have limited opportunities to make plays in the passing game for North Carolina State. Meanwhile, Rodgers needs to have an efficient game, doing enough to help the offense move the chains but limiting turnovers at the same time. If the Commodores have an efficient game on offense and make sure the game is a defensive battle played at their pace, North Carolina State won’t be able to muster enough points to win.

Bottom Line:

While Vanderbilt’s 8-4 record isn’t all that impressive, it is worth noting that three of those losses came to South Carolina, Georgia and Florida. North Carolina State on the other has losses to a 4-8 Virginia team and a 5-7 Tennessee team on its resume, and for the record, the Commodores dismantled the same Tennessee team 41-18 a few weeks ago. Granted, performances against common opponents aren’t always a great predictor, but it says something when a struggling SEC team like Tennessee can handle the Wolfpack but can’t even hang close with the Commodores. Overall, Vanderbilt is just the more balanced team on both sides of the ball, and they roll into the bowl game with a ton of momentum and with a QB that has thrown 10 touchdowns and just three picks during the last six games. Yes, Glennon does give North Carolina State an excellent weapon, but he just doesn’t have the help around him to take down a Vanderbilt and its stingy defense.

Prediction: Vanderbilt Commodores (-7) Cover the Spread

NC State vs Vanderbilt Vegas Odds and Total
Date: 12/29/12
Line: Vanderbilt -7
Total: Over/Under 51.5
Television: 12 PM EST on ESPN

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