2012 College Football Bowl Picks: Navy vs Arizona St Odds and Predictions – Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl Picks

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl Odds and Picks: Navy vs Arizona St Predictions – Free College Bowl Picks 12/29/12: Two teams with opposite offensive styles will clash in Saturday’s Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl. The Arizona State Sun Devils (7-5, 5-4 Pac-12) and their up-tempo offense will face the Navy Midshipmen (8-4) and their triple-option attack. The two teams also took slightly different paths to Saturday’s game with the Sun Devils coming up with a pair of wins to close the year to gain bowl eligibility while the Midshipmen won seven of their last eight games after a slow start. Even though they didn’t become bowl eligible until late in the year, the Wildcats are 13 ½-point favorites in this one.

Balance has been the key for a high-powered Arizona State offense that ranks 21st in the country in scoring at 36.4 points per game. Quarterback Taylor Kelly heads a passing attack that ranks in the top 50 in the country, and he has thrown for more than 2,700 yards along with 25 touchdowns. Meanwhile, the ground game features a trio of backs that have combined for more than 1,500 yards and 18 scores, and Kelly has added more than 400 yards, as well. Overall, the rushing attack ranks 39th in the country. Arizona State’s defense is respectable on paper, allowing 24.0 points per game. The main cog of the unit is defensive tackle Will Sutton, who led the Pac-12 in tackles for loss.

Running the ball and controlling the clock are the secrets to Navy’s success. The Midshipmen’s ground game ranks sixth in the country, and three players have topped 600 yards on the year. Gee Gee Greene is the most explosive back of the group, but quarterback Keenan Reynolds does the most damage around the goal line and has a team-leading 10 touchdowns. On the flip side, Navy’s passing game is basically nonexistent, and the offense doesn’t put up a ton of points. Coming into the bowl game, Navy is scoring less than 25 points per game. Defensively, the Midshipmen have been solid, ranking 30th in the country in points allowed.

The Midshipmen Win If:

There really isn’t any mystery to what Navy does on offense and there aren’t any tricks the Midshipmen can use to win this game. Plain and simple, Navy has to be able to line up and run the ball effectively. If the Midshipmen get their triple-option attack working early, they will be in business. A steady, productive running game will allow Navy to control the clock, wear down the Arizona State defense and keep its own defense rested and ready. If the triple-option gives the Sun Devils fits and Navy controls the pace of the game, the Midshipmen can win. If Navy can’t run the ball, this game will get ugly.

The Sun Devils Win If:

If the Arizona State defense can consistently win on first and second down and force third and longs, it will go a long way to limiting the effectiveness of Navy’s rushing attack. Offensively, Arizona State needs to make the most of its early possessions to put as much pressure as possible on the Navy offense. The Midshipmen will be happy to play a field position battle in a low-scoring game, but if the Sun Devils build an early lead, there is only so long Navy can run the ball. If Arizona State can make sure Navy has to try to throw the ball at some point to keep pace, the Sun Devils are going to be in great shape.

The Bottom Line:

At the end of the day, this is just a tough matchup for Navy. Arizona State’s defense isn’t great as a whole, but the unit does have one of the best defensive tackles in the country anchoring the middle of its line. Sutton is the type of player that makes plays in the backfield himself and opens up gaps for his teammates to make plays. In short, he is a human wrecking ball, and in this game, he is Navy’s worst nightmare. The Midshipmen just can’t score against defenses that can disrupt the run, and it shows by the combined 17 points they managed in losses to Notre Dame, Penn State and San Jose State. Meanwhile, Arizona State’s offense is balanced and powerful and more than capable of putting up enough points to force Navy to abandon the run and turn this game into a blowout.

Prediction: Arizona State Wildcats (-13 ½) Cover the Spread 

Navy @ Arizona St Vegas Odds and Total
Date: 12/29/12
Line: Arizona St -14
Total: Over/Under 53.5
Television: 4 PM EST on ESPN

Stop by NSAwins.com daily throughout the NCAA Football season for daily Hesiman Trophy Vegas Odds and College Football Odds plus daily updated BCS National Championship Betting Odds and 2012 College Bowl Odds.