2012 College Football Bowl Picks: Georgia Tech vs USC Odds and Predictions – Free Sun Bowl Picks

Sun Bowl Odds and Picks: Georgia Tech vs USC Predictions – Free College Bowl Picks 12/31/12: After two-year probation stemming from NCAA violations, the USC Trojans (7-5, 5-4 Pac-12) return to a bowl game Monday, but it isn’t exactly the game anyone expected. After opening the season a national title favorite, a rash of disappointing losses has the Trojans playing in the Hyundai Sun Bowl against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-7, 5-3 ACC). Heck, the Yellow Jackets needed special permission just to play in the game after a loss in the conference title game dropped them below .500 on the year. Needless to say, it isn’t exactly the grand stage USC expected to make its postseason return on, but despite the disappointing season, the Trojans are 7 ½-point favorites in this matchup.

Offensive weapons abound for a USC offense scoring 34.2 points per game this year, but the main cog to the unit will be missing Monday. Quarterback Matt Barkley is still dealing with a shoulder injury, leaving Max Wittek to make just his second-career. On the plus side, Wittek has two excellent receivers to throw to in Marqise Lee and Robert Woods and two solid backs to hand the ball to in Silas Redd and Curtis McNeal. Lee is the most explosive option of the group, having hauled in 112 passes and already topping 1,600 yards on the year. Defensively, safety T.J. McDonald leads a unit that stifled weaker competition but seemed to struggle against the better offenses in the Pac-12.

Georgia Tech almost exclusively runs the ball on offense, using its triple-option system. The ground game currently ranks fourth in the country, and the six different players have at least 400 rushing yards. Orwin Smith and quarterback Tevin Washington are the two main weapons in the system with Smith leading the team in rushing and Washington scoring a team-high 19 touchdowns. Overall, the Yellow Jackets have scored 47 rushing touchdowns and are averaging 34.5 points per game. Despite the ball control offense, the Georgia Tech defense has had its struggles. For the year, the Yellow Jackets are allowing opponents to score nearly 30 points per game.

The Trojans Win If:

If USC comes out focused and puts the Yellow Jackets in an early hole, this game could turn into a route. If that is going to happen, Wittek needs to play a smart game. The players around him are all capable of making big plays, but turning the ball over and giving the Yellow Jackets a chance to control the ball and the pace could cause serious issues for USC. On the flip side, USC will be in great shape if it can create a faster pace by hitting big plays on offense. If Georgia Tech is put into a situation where it has to try to throw the ball to keep pace with the Trojans, this game will get ugly. USC has more offensive firepower, and it needs to make sure it uses all of it.

The Yellow Jackets Win If:

Plain and simple, Georgia Tech has to be able to run the ball in order to win. Beating the Trojans isn’t an option if Washington has to throw the ball in order to try to generate points. Defensively, the Yellow Jackets need to try to force the inexperienced Wittek into some mistakes. By limiting the snaps for the USC offense, Georgia Tech not only limits the chance for the Trojans to hit big plays, but it also increases its own chances of wearing down the USC defense. If the Yellow Jackets control the clock on offense with their triple-option attack, they should be able to take advantage of a USC team that has been inconsistent on both sides of the ball all season.

Bottom Line:

Based solely on the talent for both teams, there is no reason USC shouldn’t overwhelm the Yellow Jackets with their offensive firepower. However, the Trojans have been shooting themselves in the foot all year with mistakes and penalties and have lost every single big game they have played. It is hard to imagine that the Sun Bowl will provide enough motivation to suddenly get this group focused, especially with Barkley out with an injury. The Trojans have consistently underwhelmed all year and have played down to their competition at almost every turn. Georgia Tech isn’t the more talented team, but they will be the more consistent team Monday, and they will play like they want to win the game. I don’t see USC caring about this game enough to blowout the Yellow Jackets.

Prediction: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+7 ½) Cover the Spread

Georgia Tech vs USC Vegas Odds and Total
Date: 12/31/12
Line: USC -7.5
Total: Over/Under 62.5
Television: 2 PM EST on CBS

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