2012 Hawaii Bowl Odds and Picks: Fresno St vs SMU Predictions – Free College Bowl Picks 12/24/12: Although Fresno State and SMU will meet in Monday’s Sheraton Hawaii Bowl, the programs didn’t exactly have similar seasons. The Bulldogs (9-3, 7-1 MWC) won a share of the Mountain West Conference and closed the year with a five-game winning streak. The Mustangs (6-6, 5-3 C-USA) on other hand finished a distant second in its division of Conference USA and went just 2-2 in their final four games. With the momentum clearly on the side of Fresno State, it isn’t surprising to see the Bulldogs listed as 12 ½-point favorites in this matchup.
Led by quarterback Derek Carr, the Bulldogs have been an offensive juggernaut this year. Carr has 36 touchdowns compared to just five interceptions and more than 3,700 yards for the country’s 12th-best passing attack. Meanwhile, Robbie Rouse provides a big counterpunch on the ground, and he is closing in on 1,500 yards entering the bowl game. Overall, Fresno State ranks 12th in the country in scoring at more than 40 points per game. The Bulldogs are also solid on defense, ranking in the top 30 in points allowed. The unit is highlighted by cornerback Phillip Thomas, who is leading the country with eight interceptions this season.
SMU’s offense hasn’t exactly been explosive, but running back Zach Line is the workhorse, topping 1,200 yards for the third year in a row for a unit that is averaging just under 30 points per game. Garrett Gilbert is under center for the Mustangs, and although the former Texas Longhorns’ QB was one of the top recruits in the country coming out of high school, he has been inconsistent at best in his college career. This season has been no exception, and he enters the bowl game with 14 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. The SMU defense has also had its highs and lows, pitching a pair of shutouts and allowing more than 40 points in four other games. SMU is allowing 27.0 points per game on the year.
The Bulldogs Win If:
The Fresno State offense was efficient, balanced and powerful all year, and if Carr and Rouse both have solid games Monday, points shouldn’t be hard to come by. Defensively, the Bulldogs need to take advantage of their stout pass rush and opportunistic secondary to rattle Gilbert. The SMU QB has almost as many interceptions as touchdowns anyway, and if Fresno State can get some pressure on him, the Bulldogs should be able to create some turnovers. If Fresno State makes Gilbert and the SMU offense try to keep pace in a high-scoring shootout, the Bulldogs should have no trouble grabbing the win.
The Mustangs Win If:
Line and the ground game are the Mustangs’ best friends in this matchup. With the often-shaky play of Gilbert, SMU isn’t built to win high-scoring games, especially against an offensive powerhouse like Fresno State. If the Mustangs try to match the Bulldogs point for point, it is going to end poorly. However, Line is a powerful, punishing back, and if SMU can establish him early, things could get interesting. By controlling the clock and the pace of the game, the Mustangs can keep Carr and the Fresno State offense on the sidelines and keep the score at a manageable level. If Line and SMU make sure the game is played at their pace, the Mustangs have a shot at containing the Bulldogs’ offense and winning the game.
Bottom Line:
Fresno State hasn’t had a bad loss all year. The Bulldogs lost by one to the eventual Conference USA champion Tulsa Golden Hurricane and were competitive in losses to ranked opponents Oregon and Boise State. Meanwhile, the Mustangs have been up and down all year, losing to Tulane and Rice and getting crushed by Baylor and Texas A&M. It is SMU’s inconsistency on both sides of the ball that will catch up with them against a Fresno State team that can pile up points with its passing attack and create havoc with a defense that ranks in the top 20 in sacks and the top five in interceptions. It is a big spread to cover, but the Bulldogs have the powerful offense and opportunistic defense needed to deliver a dominating win against an SMU bunch that has yet to put it all together.
Prediction: Fresno State Bulldogs (-12 ½) Cover the Spread
Fresno St vs Hawaii Vegas Odds and Total
Date: 12/24/12
Line: Fresno St -12.5
Total: Over/Under 59.5
Television: 8 PM EST on ESPN
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