2012 Little Caesars Bowl Odds and Picks: Central Michigan vs Western Kentucky Predictions – Free College Bowl Picks 12/26/12: For those college football fans that believe the bowl season has gotten a bit out of hand, the Little Caesars Bowl probably falls into the category of unnecessary. The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (7-5, 4-4 Sun Belt) will take on the Central Michigan Chippewas (6-6, 4-4 MAC) in a game that is essentially a battle between two mid-pack teams from mediocre conferences. Still, a bowl game is a chance for both programs to showcase themselves to a national audience, and a victory could definitely have long-term dividends. Throw in the fact that this could be the biggest game many of the players for both sides ever take part in, and an entertaining game could be on tap despite the records of each team. The Hilltoppers enter the matchup as 5 ½-point favorites.
Consistency was an issue for Western Kentucky all year. They knocked off SEC opponent Kentucky on the road in overtime, and they were the only team to beat Sun Belt champ Arkansas State in conference play. However, the Hilltoppers also lost three of their final four games and lost their best defense player to an injury in November. As far as personnel goes, running back Antonio Andrews is the workhorse of a mediocre offense that is averaging less than 29 points per game. Andrews has more than 1,600 yards on the year and 11 scores while quarterback Kawaun Jakes has thrown 21 touchdowns. Meanwhile, Western Kentucky’s defense has been above average, allowing less than 26 points per game and piling up more than 30 sacks on the year.
Central Michigan was up and down all year, losing four straight early in the year before closing the season with three straight wins. A balanced, solid offense that average nearly 30 points per game was the Chippewas biggest strength. Quarterback Ryan Radcliff is less than 100 yards away from a 3,000-yard season while running back Zurlon Tipton has more than 1,300 yards to go along with 19 rushing scores. Radcliff’s two favorite targets to throw to are Titus Davis and Cody Wilson. Both players topped 700 yards, and Davis is averaging 20.0 yards per reception. Central Michigan has needed all the offense it can get this season to make up for a struggling defense that is allowing more than 33 points per game.
The Hilltoppers Win If:
When the Hilltoppers are at their best, their offense is pounding opponents on the ground while their defense is pressuring QBs and disrupting the opponent’s offense. If Western Kentucky can follow a similar recipe for success Wednesday, the Chippewas are going to be in trouble. If Andrews and the ground game get rolling early, a porous Central Michigan defense is going to break sooner rather than later. Once Western Kentucky builds a lead, the Hilltoppers are going to be in the driver’s seat. If Central Michigan gets into a situation where it has to throw the ball a lot to catch up, the Hilltoppers’ pass rush is going to feast on Jakes. If Western Kentucky establishes Andrews early and attacks Jakes with its pass rush late, the Hilltoppers will pull away over the course of the game.
The Chippewas Win If:
Avoiding an early deficit and maintaining balance on the offensive side of the ball will be crucial for Central Michigan. Yes, the Chippewas have a solid passing attack and can hang some points on the board, but they also don’t have an elite offense. They also don’t have an offense that is always capable of covering up their struggling defense, and in five of their six losses, they allowed more than 40 points to their opponent. If Central Michigan’s defensive unit lets the Hilltoppers control the game offensively, the Chippewas are going to be in trouble. If the defense can at least get enough stops throughout the game to allow Radcliff and Tipton to remain involved in the offense, the Chippewas can keep the Western Kentucky defense guessing and come away with the win.
Bottom Line:
On paper, Western Kentucky certainly seems like the better. They have the bigger wins, the better running game and the better defense. However, injuries along their defensive line have left the Hilltoppers’ unit vulnerable. The team lost four of its final six games, allowing more than 30 points to opponents in all four losses. Plain and simple, Western Kentucky is just not playing its best football heading into the bowl game, and the team is also dealing with a coaching change. Meanwhile, the Chippewas carry a three-game winning streak into the Little Caesars Bowl, and although they struggled against the top teams in the MAC, Western Kentucky doesn’t have the type of high-powered offense or stingy defense that gave the Chippewas issues throughout the season. Central Michigan has shown time and time again that it can compete as long as its hold its opponent under 40 points. The Hilltoppers aren’t playing like a team that can put that many points on the board, and the Chippewas will be in this game until the end.
Prediction: Central Michigan Chippewas (+5 ½) Cover the Spread
Central Michigan vs Western Kentucky Vegas Odds and Total
Date: 12/26/12
Line: Western Kentucky -6.5
Total: Over/Under 57.5
Television: 7:30 PM EST on ESPN
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