2012 College Football Bowl Picks: Ball State vs UCF Odds and Predictions – Free Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl Picks

2012 Beef ‘O’ Brady Bowl Odds and Picks: Ball State vs Central Florida Predictions – Free College Bowl Picks 12/21/12: After just missing out on conference titles, the Ball State Cardinals (9-3, 6-2 MAC) and UCF Knights (9-4, 7-2 C-USA) will meet in the Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl Friday. All three of Ball State’s losses came to teams that were ranked in the top 25 at some point in the year while UCF lost to Ohio State and Missouri out of conference before losing by two points to Tulsa in the regular season and then again to the Golden Hurricane in overtime of the Conference USA championship game. In other words, neither side has a bad loss on the year. A postseason victory and a 10-win season are up for grabs for both teams, and the Knights are seven-point favorites in the matchup.

For the Cardinals, a strong offense and shaky defense defined their regular season. Quarterback Keith Wenning is expected back after missing the final regular season game and is closing in on 3,000 yards while running back Jahwan Edwards has already topped 1,300 yards and is averaging more than six yards per carry. Overall, Ball State brings a top-50 passing attack, a top-25 rushing attack and an offense averaging 35.0 points per game into the bowl game. On the flip side, the Cardinals’ defense only ranks 91st in the country in scoring. On the year, Ball State is allowing 31.5 points per game to opponents.

UCF has been solid on both sides of the ball throughout the year. Blake Bortles has 22 touchdowns and almost 2,800 yards entering the postseason while running back Latavius Murray has scored 14 times and is averaging almost six yards per carry. The Knights haven’t piled up a ton of yards on offense this season, but they have made the most of their scoring chances. UCF enters the bowl game ranked 27th in scoring at 35.2 points per game. The Knights also rank in the top 30 in scoring defense, allowing just 22.5 points per game.

The Cardinals Win If:

Offensive firepower isn’t an issue for Ball State, but the Cardinals don’t necessarily want to get caught in a shootout Friday. The Cardinals’ weakness is their defense, and finding ways to protect the unit will be crucial. If Ball State is able to keep Edwards and the ground game rolling, the Cardinals can manage the clock a bit and control the pace. Ball State’s chances of winning increase the longer its defense is on the sidelines. Wenning and the offense also need to avoid turnovers at all costs. The Cardinals’ defense struggles to defend almost any offense, and giving UCF a short field only makes the problem worse. If Ball State controls the game with its offense, the Cardinals can overcome their defensive issues to pick up the win.

The Knights Win If:

Bortles and the UCF offense have been efficient most of the year, and another consistent performance will be the catalyst for a victory against Ball State. If the Knight’s offense can produces steady, extended drives, they will tax a struggling Cardinals’ defense. Defensively, the Knights don’t have to completely shut down the Cardinals, but a few stops here and there will go a long way to tipping the scales in their favor. If UCF can make sure this game comes down to which defense can make more stops in an otherwise high-scoring game, the balance on both sides of the ball for the Knights should win out.

Bottom Line:

The Knights failed to score at least 30 points four times this season, and they lost all four of those games. Meanwhile, the Cardinals allowed an average of 44.0 points per game to opponents in their three losses. In other words, Friday’s meeting basically comes down to UCF’s offense versus the Ball State defense. Both teams can put points on the board, but only the Knights have shown they can also rely on their defense to win games. Ball State hasn’t been able to slow down opposing offenses all year, and the Knights have shown that if they can hit the 30-point mark that they are basically unbeatable. They should be able to reach that mark against the Cardinals’ defense and come away with a win in the Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl.

Prediction: UCF Knights (-7) Cover the Spread

Ball State vs UCF Vegas Odds and Total
Date: 12/21/12
Line: UCF -7
Total: Over/Under 61.5
Television: 7:30 PM EST on ESPN

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