2012 College Bowl Picks: East Carolina vs Louisiana-Lafayette Odds and Predictions – R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl Picks

2012 R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl Odds and Picks: East Carolina vs Louisiana-Lafayette Predictions – Free College Bowl Picks 12/22/12: After winning the R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl last season, the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (8-4, 6-2 Sun Belt) are back for more. This time around, they will face the East Carolina Pirates (8-4, 7-1 C-USA), who are returning to the postseason after a 5-7 campaign last year. Both sides bring three-game winning streaks into the matchup, and both are seeking nine-win seasons. Playing in their own backyard, the Ragin’ Cajuns are 5 ½-point favorites Saturday.

For the East Carolina, a high-powered passing attack led by Shane Carden leads and offense that is putting up more than 31 points per game on the year. Carden is closing in on 3,000 yards and has thrown for 21 touchdowns compared to just nine picks heading into the bowl game. His main target is Justin Hardy, who has caught 10 touchdowns and has more than 1,000 yards on the year. With 1,000 yards under his belt, Vintavious Cooper provides enough balance on the ground to keep defenses honest. Meanwhile, the Pirates’ own defense has struggled and enters the game ranked 86th in the country. East Carolina is giving up almost 31 points per game this year and has allowed an average of more than 40 points per game in its four losses.

Dual-threat quarterback Terrance Broadway has defined the balanced offensive attack for Louisiana-Lafayette. After starter Blaine Gautier went down with an injury early in the year, Broadway more than picked up the slack. He enters the bowl game with more than 2,500 yards passing and more than 600 yards rushing for an offense that ranks in the top 50 in both passing and rushing yards nationally. The Ragin’ Cajuns are averaging almost 35 points per game on the year, and they have yet to lose a game when the crack the 30-point plateau. Defensively, Louisiana-Lafayette has been mediocre at best, allowing almost 28 points per game to opponents. The unit has been particularly vulnerable against the pass this season.

The Pirates Win If:

While Carden and the passing game should be able to find some holes in the Louisiana-Lafayette secondary, the Pirates need to control the pace of their game with their offense in order to win. As good as the passing game has been, East Carolina has struggled in games when it has fallen behind and been forced to throw on every down. The Pirates need to make sure to keep the Ragin’ Cajuns’ defense guessing in order to put together consistent scoring drives. If East Carolina can jump out to an early lead or at least stay close, the Pirates definitely have the firepower to outscore Louisiana-Lafayette. If they fall behind big early and become one dimensional, things could get out of hand.

The Ragin’ Cajuns Win If:

It is no secret that the Ragin’ Cajuns are successful when their offense is clicking, and Broadway is the center of the attack. If he has a big game Saturday and keeps the East Carolina defense off balance with his dual-threat ability, points should be easy to come by for Louisiana Lafayette. Defensively, winning on early downs will be crucial. While the pass defense of the Ragin’ Cajuns has been weak, they can avoid the issue by forcing East Carolina into obvious passing situations. Even a bad defense can look respectable if it knows what the opponent is going to do. If Louisiana-Lafayette offense can keep the pressure on the Pirates and the defense can create a few third and long situations, Broadway and company can come away with the win.

Bottom Line:

Neither team has shown the ability to win a defensive-minded game, but that really shouldn’t be an issue given the defenses on both sides. At their best, the Ragin’ Cajuns are probably the better team. After all, they nearly knocked off third-ranked Florida late in the year and had a 28-point win over a Tulane team that East Carolina beat by just five points. Still, consistency issues remain for both defenses, and this game has all the makings of a back-and-forth shootout. Broadway and Carden should take turns delivering big plays throughout the game, and in the end, the last team that has the ball could be the one that ends up on top. In a high-scoring matchup that will likely go down to the wire, take the Pirates and the points.

Prediction: East Carolina Pirates (+5 ½) Cover the Spread

East Carolina vs Louisiana-Lafayette Vegas Odds and Total
Date: 12/21/12
Line: UL-Lafayette -5
Total: Over/Under 65.5
Television: 12 PM EST on ESPN

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