2012 Big Ten Championship Odds and Picks: Nebraska vs Wisconsin Predictions – Free College Football Picks

2012 Big Ten Championship Odds and Picks: Nebraska vs Wisconsin Predictions – Free College Football Picks 12/1/12: For just the second time in its long history, the Big Ten will decide its champion with a conference championship game. Fittingly, the conference’s most-recent addition that brought about the title game will be one of the teams playing for the crown as the 12th-ranked Nebraska Cornhuskers (10-2, 7-1 Big Ten) prepare to face the defending conference champion Wisconsin Badgers (7-5, 4-4 Big Ten) Saturday night. Nebraska fought its way to a title in the loaded Legends Division while Wisconsin won the Leaders Division despite having the third-best record. Probation for Ohio State and Penn State disqualified both schools, leaving the Badgers as the de facto champions. Saturday night’s Big Ten title is also a rematch of a regular season meeting that the Cornhuskers won 30-27 at home. A Big Ten championship and a Rose Bowl berth are on the line this time around, and Nebraska is a three-point favorite.

Nebraska has an explosive, run-first offense led by dual-threat quarterback Taylor Martinez. The junior has thrown for almost 2,500 yards and has run for more than 800, helping Nebraska average more than 35 points per game. He is supported in the run game by the speedy Ameer Abdullah while power back Rex Burkhead recently returned from injury, putting the eighth-best rush offense at full strength for Saturday’s crucial matchup. The Cornhuskers have been solid defensively, ranking 31st in the country in points allowed at 22.6 per game. That being said, there have been a few lapses, including debacle against Ohio State where Nebraska surrendered 63 points.

The Badgers take a run-first approach on offense, as well, but they use a more traditional power attack. Running back Montee Ball is the workhorse of the offense while James White provides a speedy counterpunch. The two have combined for more than 2,200 rushing yards, and with his 18 scores, Ball is now college football’s all-time leader for career scores. Wisconsin has managed to rank in the top 25 in terms of rushing despite a messy quarterback situation. Injuries have forced third-string QB Curtis Phillips into action, but he has managed four scores compared to just one interception. On the defensive side of the ball, the Badgers have been stingy most of the year. Wisconsin is allowing just 18.1 points per game to opponents, which puts them in the top 20 nationally.

The Cornhuskers Win If:

While Nebraska’s offense has recaptured the powerful running game from the days of Tom Osborne, the defense remains a work in progress. Facing one of the best backs in the country in Ball, the Cornhuskers have to find a way to slow Wisconsin’s ground game, or they are going to fighting an uphill battle most of the game. Nebraska is at its best when it is the team wearing down an opponent with its two-headed monster at running back and the play-making ability of Martinez. If Ball and the Wisconsin offense are the ones controlling the clock and the pace, the Cornhuskers’ defense is going to be the unit that wears down. With the Badgers forced to use a third-strong QB, they are only going to rely more heavily on Ball. Nebraska knows what is coming from the Wisconsin offense, and it is up to its defense to do something about it. If the Cornhuskers bottle up Ball, Martinez and the offense have more than enough firepower to outscore a one-dimensional Badgers’ scoring attack.

The Badgers Win If:

There is no doubt that the Wisconsin offense was no wear near the juggernaut it was last season even when the Badgers had their starting QB. Now that Phillips is under center, the offense is even more limited. As a result, establishing Ball, White and the ground game is the single most important factor for the Badgers. Not only does running ball give Wisconsin its best chance to win, but it also allows the Badgers to control the clock and the pace of the game, keeping their defense well rested and keeping Martinez and the Nebraska offense on the sidelines. Wisconsin just doesn’t have the quarterback to win a shootout against the Cornhuskers, but the Badgers do have the workhorse running back and defense to win a close, lower-scoring game. If Wisconsin controls the tempo, the Badgers can win their third straight Big Ten title.

Bottom Line:

It is easy to dismiss the Badgers’ chances in the title game because they backed their way into a Leaders Division crown thanks to the ineligibility of both Ohio State and Penn State. However, Wisconsin’s 7-5 record is a bit misleading. The Badgers lost all five games by seven points or less and four games by three points or less, including a three-point loss to Nebraska in Lincoln. Not to mention the fact that the Badgers were 6-2 before losing three out of their final four games with all three losses coming in overtime. The point is that Wisconsin has yet to get blown out in a game this year, and with Ball and the Badgers’ ground game controlling the clock, this game will be tight, as well. After blowing a 17-point lead on the road in their loss to the Cornhuskers, the two-time defending Big Ten champs will get their revenge on a neutral site and head back to the Rose Bowl.

Prediction: Wisconsin Badgers (+3) Cover the Spread

Nebraska vs Wisconsin Vegas Odds and Total
Line: Nebraska -3
Total: Over/Under 49
Television: 8:15 PM EST on FOX

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