Wisconsin @ Ohio St Odds, Picks and Predictions – 2012 Free College Basketball Picks 2/26/2012

Free College Basketball Picks and Spreads: Wisconsin @ Ohio St 2012 NCAA Basketball Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions 2/26/12: Two of the top teams in the Big Ten will go head to head Sunday, with potential conference title implications on the line. The 15th-ranked Wisconsin Badgers (20-8) will travel to Columbus to take on the ninth-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes (23-5). Ohio State is just a game back of Michigan State for the top spot in the Big Ten, but with a matchup against the Spartans in regular season finale still looming, the Buckeyes control their own destiny. However, winning a conference title means getting by the Badgers first, and considering how intense the rivalry between the two programs has become in recent years, that will be easier said than done. Wisconsin will look to play the role of spoiler but will do so as a 10-point underdog.

Ohio State and Wisconsin couldn’t be more different in terms of style of play. The Buckeyes break the mold of many Big Ten teams, preferring to play at a faster pace. It shows on the stat sheet, where Ohio State ranks in the top 40 nationally in points per game and in the top 20 in field goal percentage. Meanwhile, the Badgers average less than 64 points per game and shoot a dismal 42.3 percent from the field as a team. However, Wisconsin’s ball control offense supports its suffocating defense, and the Badgers try to grind out every possession on both ends of the court.

While it would make sense to assume that the team that controls the tempo would have the upper hand Sunday, it may not be the case. When the two teams met in Madison, the Buckeyes emerged with a 58-52 victory in a low-scoring, slow-paced game. Ohio State played the game at the Badgers’ tempo in the Badgers’ house and still came away victorious. The Buckeyes dominated the game in the paint, with forwards Jared Sullinger and Deshaun Thomas combining for 40 points. Sullinger scored a game-high 24 points and finished with a double-double.

Wisconsin could find it difficult to slow down Sullinger in the rematch, as well. The Badgers have plenty of big bodies in the post, but the strength of the Wisconsin big men is there range on the offensive end and not their post defense. Sullinger scored early and often and outmuscled the Badgers’ defense. A similar performance Sunday would likely allow the Buckeyes to complete a season sweep and keep their conference title hopes alive.

If the Badgers are going to turn the tables, they will need to improve on their 3-point shooting. Wisconsin likes to spread the floor on the offensive end, and every starter is capable of making a perimeter shot. However, the Badgers made just five of their 27 3-point attempts in their February 4 loss to Ohio State. Unless that changes Sunday, Wisconsin’s chances of pulling the upset are virtually nonexistent.

The X-factor in the game could be Ohio State guard William Buford. He has been a rollercoaster all season, dominating on the offensive end at times and missing almost everything in a majority of the Buckeyes’ losses. Buford went 4-for-15 from the field in the first meeting with the Badgers, but if Wisconsin is able to connect on more of their perimeter shots, Ohio State will need more out of Buford to keep pace.

In the end, it’s tough not to like the Buckeyes. After all, they have struggled all year in low-scoring games, but they knocked of the Badgers in Madison despite scoring less than 60 points. Playing in Columbus with the crowd on their side should help Ohio State control the tempo this weekend, and that is bad news for the Badgers. Wisconsin just doesn’t have the firepower on offense to keep up with the Buckeyes when Ohio State is firing on all cylinders.

Prediction: Ohio State Buckeyes (-10) Cover the Spread

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